FYI: After two straight months of weaker than expected readings and three straight months of declines, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for January came in stronger than expected and increased on a month/month basis. While economists were collectively expecting the headline report to come in at 9.5, the actual reading was 17.0. While the headline index is well off its highs from early/mid-2017, it has now been above zero for 32 months, which is tied for the second longest streak on record. One thing to note about the prior streaks of above zero readings is that in the four prior periods where the Philly Fed dropped below zero after at least 24 straight months of positive readings, it was not a warning of an imminent recession. In fact, the soonest a recession arrived after one of these streaks ended was 15 months. So while the Philly Fed continues to indicate a slowdown in the pace of economic growth, it is not flashing warnings of an imminent recession.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/philly-fed-rebounds/
