Howdy,
A thank you to all who post the links, start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
The perspectives and investments are based, not upon a formal economic studies background; but from the "School of Hard Knocks & Studies". Of which, this house is still enrolled. NOTE: This portfolio is designed for retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around.....An old children's holiday song lyric goes....."All I want for Christmas is my two front teeth, my two front teeth, my two front teeth....." Perhaps all an investor could want for each and every Christmas, is an average annual return of +8%. The math is simple, but the chore is less so, eh? Going for a net of +2.7% annually could look this way, in the most simple math terms.
--- +8% gross investment return
--- let us throw out 2% of this assuming a fed. taxable bracket of 25% (more for high tax states)
--- we're now at +6%
--- a further reduction of 3.3% for the old inflation hidden tax thingy (3.3 perhaps being a high end average)
--- = a net of +2.7%
Can one live with this return? All answers will be different. One needs to generate a +.031872510% return for each of the average 251 trading days/year to arrive at a 8% return. Well, just a little fun looking at investments from the simple side of life. This house's schedule is already loaded to the maximum through the new year period; and so this report may not be posted in any fullness for the next several weeks. And horror of horrors; we will be traveling upon the highways on the Mayan flip day of December, 21, 2012. We will be "stuck" with our portfolio; regardless of events, as the last week of the year will find us without access to a secure online connection, if any connection at all.
NOTE: for the below sector rotations. Some of the variances in % terms may be beyond normal values, as some numbers will be adjusted for distributions at this time of the year, and reflected in week ending numbers.
The data/numbers below have been updated.
As to sector rotations below (Fidelity funds); for the past week: (Note: any given fund in any of these sectors will have varying degrees of performance based upon where the manager(s) choose to be invested and will not directly reflect upon your particular fund holdings from other vendors.) Sidenote: The average weekly return of 200 combined Fidelity retail funds across all sectors (week avg = - .07%, YTD +12.65%).
--- U.S. equity - 5.36% through + 1.6%, week avg. = - .41% YTD = + 15.05%
--- Int'l equity - 7.21% through + 2.0%, week avg. = - .95% YTD = + 15.61%
--- Select eq. sectors - 3.8% through + 1.4%, week avg. = - .04% YTD = + 15.0%
--- U.S./Int'l bonds - .15% through + .51%, week avg. = + .09% YTD = + 4.2%
--- HY bonds - .20% through + .74%, week avg. = + .33% YTD = + 12.92%
A Decent Overview, M* 1 Month through 5 Year, Multiple Indexes
You may consider our portfolio to be quite boring, but you may be assured that it moves and bends each and every day; from forces beyond our control.
I have added a few blips related to our portfolio and market observations at the below SELLs/BUYs and Portfolio Thoughts.
SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK: = NONE.
Portfolio Thoughts:
Our holdings had a + .49 % move this past week. As to the bond world. High yield active funds generally were ahead of their ETF cousins, with our holdings mix ranging from +.81% through +1.1% for the week. Our lowest return weekly performer was PLDDX at +.13% for the week. Other holdings: LSBDX at +.66%, PONDX at +.75% and FNMIX at +.51%. The well performing cousin of PTTRX (+.22%) performed a bit less with BOND at +.14% for the week. Many bond sectors were strong performers through Thursday, while retreating on Friday. Even the unloved and lowly respected TIPs related funds of ACITX and FINPX are working hard to return 8% for the year. Not too bad for funds with negative yields, eh? 'Course the yield and pricing is reflected from the current demand. Not bond benchmarks; but broad U.S. equity measures were at, for the week: SP-500 at +.13%, VTI at +.22% while the NASDAQ and related fund sectors were down about 1% from the "Apple" affect and its losses for the week. Some U.S. equity funds hold fairly large positions in Apple stock. One such fund, FCNTX recently held a 13% position. The Latin American sector could be a fund area to watch, going forward, as this area has been weak YTD. There continues to be a wide range of weekly returns between select equity(s) sectors and particular global country sectors. A lot of hot money is still traveling and looking for the best "play". We'll continue to watch; but do not have plans at this time, to enter into equity areas.
Still plodding along, and we will retain the below write from previous weeks; as what we are watching, still applies. --- commodity pricing, especially the energy and base materials areas; copper and related.
--- the $US broad basket value, and in particular against the Euro and Aussie dollar (EU zone and China/Asia uncertainties).
--- price directions of U.S. treasury's, German bunds, U.K. gilts, Japanese bonds; and continued monitoring of Spanish/Italian bond pricing/yield.
--- what we are watching to help understand the money flows: SHY, IEF, TLT, TIPZ, STPZ, LTPZ, LQD, EMB, HYG, IWM, IYT & VWO; all of which offer insights reflected from the big traders as to the quality/risk, or lack of quality/risk; in various equity/bond sectors.
The Funds Boat is at anchor, riding in the small waves, watching the weather and behind the breakwater barrier. To the high praise of MFO and the members, it is very difficult to find a topic to note here that has not been placed into the discussion boards. Excellence, as usual.
I have retained the following links for those who may choose to do their own holdings comparison against the fund types noted.
The first two links to Bloomberg are for their list of balanced/flexible funds; although I don't always agree with the placement of fund styles in their categories.
Bloomberg BalancedBloomberg FlexibleThese next two links are for conservative and moderate fund leaders YTD, per MSN.
Conservative AllocationModerate AllocationA reflection upon the links above. We attempt to establish a "benchmark" for our portfolio to help us "see" how our funds are performing. Aside from viewing many funds within the balanced/flexible funds rankings (the above links), a quick and dirty group of 5 funds (below) we watch for psuedo benchmarking are the following:
***Note: these week/YTD's per M*
VWINX .... + .41% week, YTD = + 9.85%
PRPFX .... - .24% week, YTD = + 6.7%
SIRRX ..... + .42% week, YTD = + 7.02%
TRRFX .... + .49% week, YTD = + 10.2%
VTENX ... + .57% week, YTD = + 9.36%Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
We live and invest in interesting times, eh? Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense. Comments and questions always welcomed.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
Catch
---Below is what M* x-ray has attempted to sort for our portfolio, as of Nov. 1, 2012 ---
From what I find, M* has a difficult time sorting out the holdings with bond funds.
U.S./Foreign Stocks 1.9%
Bonds 93.9% ***
Other 4.2%
Not Classified 0.00%
Avg yield = 3.99%
Avg expense = .57%
***about 18% of the bond total are high yield category (equity related cousins)---This % listing is kinda generic, by fund "name"; which doesn't always imply the holdings, eh?
-Investment grade bond funds 28.2%
-Diversified bond funds 22.4%
-HY/HI bond funds 14.5%
-Total bond funds 32.4%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds .6%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 1.9%
This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX.LW Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
ACITX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
PONDX Pimco Income fund (steroid version)
PLDDX Pimco Low Duration (domestic/foreign)
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
NONE outright, with the exception of equities held inside some of the above funds.
Comments
Sweet catch, thanks for sharing.
"The Funds Boat is at anchor, riding in the small waves, watching the weather and behind the breakwater barrier."
Feels like same in our house lately. Steady as she goes, I trust.
Heavy to light: RNSIX, AQRIX, WBMIX, SFGIX, FAAFX, DODBX.
Just six sweet funds. About 2/3 bonds & cash, 1/3 stocks & commodities.
Think well.