FYI: Annual predictions are so yesterday.
A higher-than-expected December payrolls number helped push the market up 3.4% on Friday. Yet stocks had their worst first two days of the year since 2000. Where the market will be in a year has little to do with where it is now. Twelve months ago, stocks were coming off a 22% return in 2017 and feeling fine, thank you very much—until September. Then, the wheels fell off.
Ironically, there is more certainty in picturing the market’s next 10 or 20 years. That’s the time frame investors should use. They rarely examine the trailing returns of past decades, but they should. There’s one number that explains a lot of things: 5.52%. Over the 20 years ended 2018, that’s been the nominal compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the S&P 500.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.barrons.com/articles/its-been-a-rough-20-years-for-stocks-the-next-20-should-be-a-lot-better-51546648966?mod=hp_DAY_2
