FYI: It takes the Earth roughly 365 days to orbit the sun so that’s what we’ve agreed upon as the definition for a full calendar year. Orbiting the sun has nothing to do with the financial markets but people still spend an inordinate amount of time figuring out what the new year will bring in the markets.
Going from December to January or the 4th quarter to the 1st quarter shouldn’t mean anything to investment professionals but the reality is people pay attention to this stuff. So even though it shouldn’t matter, if these are the norms then these are the norms.
One year in the stock market should have no bearing on the next year and the data makes this clear (chart via Mark Hulbert):
Regards,
Ted
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2019/01/2017-vs-2018-in-the-stock-market/
Comments
Change, especially in markets, has always happened, and will continue to do so in a very hard to predict manner. No experienced investor will strongly argue against that proclamation.
Here is a quote that addresses the issue: " He answered that there are those few who have the requisite talent and skill to add value over time, but the problem is that we don't know who they are in advance, nor how long their advantage will last, so trying to select them is an exercise in futility."
This quote was extracted from the following article:
https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T038-C032-S014-skill-versus-luck-in-investing.html
Investing successfully has always been a challenge. That challenge has become even more difficult over time as the abundance of knowledgeable and experiences investors has substantially increased. It's a tough game. Good luck. And good luck is needed since the skill level of the players neutralizes perceived advantages.
Best Wishes