FYI: After nearly two months of trending upwards, initial jobless claims fell dramatically this week to 206K versus last week’s 231K on a seasonally adjusted basis. This low reading is only 4K off of the multi-decade low of 202K from mid-September, and at 40 year lows for all but three readings from the last week of August and first two weeks of September. Claims were expected to decline this week, but the actual reading blew the 226K forecast out of the water; this was the largest beat since April. This week’s release has of course held onto a number impressive streaks. They have now spent 62 weeks below 250K, the best streak since January 1970 when the streak ended at 89 weeks. Claims have also held below 300K for a record 197 weeks. Given population and employment trends since the previous records, these current streaks are arguably a lot more impressive. Following the previous several weeks’ elevated levels, this week’s low reading helps to reaffirm the health of these streaks.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/jobless-claims-beat-estimates-by-20k/
