Does Anyone Care About Year-Ahead Outlooks?

Ted

FYI: At a recent press luncheon held by a major investment firm in Manhattan, a trio of portfolio managers stood in front of a PowerPoint presentation projected onto the restaurant’s wall and proffered vague predictions for the year ahead. As the managers talked, journalists dug into the breadbasket and dutifully scrawled notes into the requisite branded notebooks provided by the firm.

Similar scenes have been playing out at breakfasts, lunches, and happy hours all over midtown since just after Thanksgiving: investment managers hawking their market predictions for the next year to a captive audience of reporters over a hearty steak and a glass of wine or coffee and pastries. These events are generally built around the publication of asset managers’ year-end prediction reports, which aim to call everything from election outcomes to GDP growth for the coming year.

While most journalists are not inclined to say no to a free lunch — or notebook, or selfie stick, or whatever tchotchkes are on offer — they are inclined to question whether the reports these events are predicated on are worth much and, indeed, if they’re accurate.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1c723q2s2s9f8/Does-Anyone-Care-About-Year-Ahead-Outlooks

jerry

The article is of moderate interest though you won't learn anything that increases your net worth except possibly to not pay for macro advice.The problem is if 10 experts make predictions and 3-5 are correct (optimistic but possible)how will you know who to follow.

rforno

Fun food for thought reading, but I rarely if ever make decisions based on what they 'predict'

Mark

"Predictions are hard, especially about the future." - Yogi Berra

AndyJ

Maybe a way to turn this thread into something worthwhile would be to share whose outlooks we find useful. Here goes, from my POV, pretty much the only ones I pay any attention to:

* Hyman and McLennan, annual U.S. and global outlook interviews with Consuelo Mack; the first of the usual two programs airs this weekend.

*Pimco's secular and cyclical outlooks (not synched with the calendar year).

*DoubleLine-Gundlach's annual "Just Markets" webcast.

JMHO, it's a mistake to think of any of this stuff as "predictions." They're simply projections from individual, specific points of view that an investor can evaluate, and if any of them seem applicable and probable, use as context for judging investment opportunities in different asset classes.

hank

All of my funds prohibit “market timing.” So it shouldn’t matter.

Sven

@AndyJ, Just watch Hyman and McLennan interview - very informative. Ed Hyman likes new technology stock that open up new markets and he thinks recession is at least 3 years away. Matt McLennan takes a defensive approach in his portfolio.