FYI: Does the sell-off in stocks and bonds signal a recession? Maybe, but as economist Paul Samuelson observed, market indexes have predicted nine of the past five recessions. The truth is that even those with a strong record are bound to have exceptions and surprises. When worries over housing markets were building prior to the 2008 financial crisis, they were dismissed as uninformed because local housing markets around the country had always moved independently of each other. It's worth keeping that in mind as others argue that a nascent yield-curve inversion will prove a better recession signal than Samuelson's market indexes. A few other reminders:
Regards,
Ted
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/904311/3-lessons-from-the-bond-market.html
