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Gold bouncing like a yo-yo & Volker comments on cnbc
Not that you may not be right, but people have said the same thing at 800, 1000, 1200, etc. It becomes a matter of what are the conditions that have gotten it to this point and whether or not one believes they will continue, I suppose.
As for the day-to-day volatility, it's the norm in what is essentially a pretty thin market (and there's probably a 100 times more paper gold than there is physical.)
Ivy Asset Strategy (WASCX or whatever share class) also continues to have a little under 10% in gold.
In commodities, I think people also have to look at what's happening in agriculture - whatever one's thoughts about GMO foods, Monsanto and Syngenta are at or near 52 week highs. There's a good deal of consolidation going on, as well. I owned Australian co Graincorp, which got a buyout offer from Archer Daniels Midland.
The other thing I like on a long-term basis is digital security investments - with more and more interaction with mobile, the cloud, etc, I think innovation in digital security is going to be of more importance and more and more in focus.
" raising rates "
Maybe (although probably not) by the next administration. Bernanke's number two, Grandma Yellen, made her case the other day for ZIRP until 2016. I remain curious if NIRP will
When a soviegn, like the US, has a large stash of gold as well as ability to manipulate its currency it seems they have a distinct advantage over other soveriegns and minions that can't do both. Minions (you and me) can hold gold as a hedge against currency devaluation or resource (goods and services) inflation. I charted UUP (US dollar Bullish), GLD (Gold ETF), and PRPFX (Permanent Portfolio) over the last 5 years:
If my numbers are correct one US dollar invested in 2007:
One dollar of GLD would now be worth about $2.46 One dollar of PRPFX would be worth about $1.46 One dollar of UUP would be worth about $0.88
The easier ways to hold paper gold is through a broad nat resourse fund or with a core holding like PRPFX. Toqueville TGLDX is a long time holding that's fairly tax efficient. Be damn careful with bullion ETFs as they get whacked a 28%.
Volker was incredibly blunt while being professionally discrete. But gold's bouncing around like a superball for lots of reasons that I needn't recite. You have to figure out about what percentage of your porfolio you want to allocate to gold, do it and leave it. My grandsons have their stuffed animals they refer to as 'bed buddies'. Well, my wee stash of pm's are my bed buddy.
Reply to @rono: Hi rono. I don't disagree that holding gold long term is a good investment, but I have given up on holding funds like precious metal/miner funds like TGLDX, UNWPX and USAGX. For me, bed-buddies they are not. They tend to keep me up at night. But that's just me coming to grips with my risk tolerance.
Take care and hope you are enjoying your new career.
Comments
Not that you may not be right, but people have said the same thing at 800, 1000, 1200, etc. It becomes a matter of what are the conditions that have gotten it to this point and whether or not one believes they will continue, I suppose.
As for the day-to-day volatility, it's the norm in what is essentially a pretty thin market (and there's probably a 100 times more paper gold than there is physical.)
Ivy Asset Strategy (WASCX or whatever share class) also continues to have a little under 10% in gold.
In commodities, I think people also have to look at what's happening in agriculture - whatever one's thoughts about GMO foods, Monsanto and Syngenta are at or near 52 week highs. There's a good deal of consolidation going on, as well. I owned Australian co Graincorp, which got a buyout offer from Archer Daniels Midland.
I also think it's rather interesting that Obama's potential new Secretary of State has a third of her money in various Canadian oil plays (http://www.onearth.org/article/susan-rice-obama-secretary-state-tar-sands-finances)
The other thing I like on a long-term basis is digital security investments - with more and more interaction with mobile, the cloud, etc, I think innovation in digital security is going to be of more importance and more and more in focus.
" raising rates "
Maybe (although probably not) by the next administration. Bernanke's number two, Grandma Yellen, made her case the other day for ZIRP until 2016. I remain curious if NIRP will
If my numbers are correct one US dollar invested in 2007:
One dollar of GLD would now be worth about $2.46
One dollar of PRPFX would be worth about $1.46
One dollar of UUP would be worth about $0.88
The easier ways to hold paper gold is through a broad nat resourse fund or with a core holding like PRPFX. Toqueville TGLDX is a long time holding that's fairly tax efficient. Be damn careful with bullion ETFs as they get whacked a 28%.
Volker was incredibly blunt while being professionally discrete. But gold's bouncing around like a superball for lots of reasons that I needn't recite. You have to figure out about what percentage of your porfolio you want to allocate to gold, do it and leave it. My grandsons have their stuffed animals they refer to as 'bed buddies'. Well, my wee stash of pm's are my bed buddy.
peace,
rono
Take care and hope you are enjoying your new career.