FYI: A December 2018 Fed hike looks likely, with the markets pricing a 4 in 5 chance that it happens. Yet, what may 2019 hold?
Tightening, But How Fast?
The consensus of the markets for 2019 interest rate moves is quite finely balanced at this point, but suggests more rate increases. Currently the most likely option seems to be a single hike in 2019, especially after Powell's recent statements that rates were "just below" neutral, rather than a "long way" from neutral as he'd stated previously. Quite an abrupt shift. Nonetheless, between zero and three increases are possible in the market's view. This is lower than, the Fed policy maker's expectations of between two and five hikes in 2019, but the most recent projections we have from the Fed were in September and October's seen weaker equity markets, a falling oil price and some concerning global data since then. So what data will the data-dependent Fed be especially focused on?
Regards,
Ted
https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2018/11/29/what-to-expect-from-the-fed-in-2019/#2e9502dc7af5
