FYI: A long, slow recovery, like the one we had following the credit crisis, can give numerous signals as it matures. We have been experiencing that. Given the corporate profit picture, relatively low interest rates, modest inflation and strong leading economic indicators, it is hard for me to see what has the Recessionnistas all worked up.
The latter stages of an economic cycle — like the one we are in now — can last for several years. I agree with the implication that 1H 2019 (slightly less confident about Q4 2019) is not a likely start for a recession . . . I have no opinion yet about 2020
Regards,
Ted
https://lpl-research.com/hoc/recession-watch.html
