Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Investors looking for solace amid the wave of market sell-offs may argue that the S&P 500 has fallen only 9% from its all-time highs in September, hardly a devastating decline. But that statistic conceals the fact that we are already in a deep bear market and more downside is still to come, according to Morgan Stanley’s latest Weekly Warm Up report.
The current linked article contains info that can cause one to reconsider what may be taking place now or into the future. Be ever curious, ever learning; mix in your best common sense and developed intuition and know that the "experts" have problems getting things proper, too. Individual investors play among the ALGO's and other A.I./machine learning, reportedly with 70% of trading involved without direct human intervention; large piles of money moving about from the "educated", the gamblers and the fraudulent cheaters hoping to never to become discovered.
HOWEVER, in particular; I recall the GS, 2011 forecast shown below.
---Morgan Stanley cuts global growth forecasts Published: Aug 18, 2011 2:54 a.m. ET
SIMON KENNEDY LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Morgan Stanley said Thursday that the U.S. and euro zone are "hovering dangerously close to recession" as it cut its forecasts for global growth. The broker said it now expects global gross domestic product to rise 3.9% in 2011 and 3.8% in 2012, down from its previous forecast of 4.2% and 4.5% respectively. It added, however, that recession is "not our base case" for Europe and the U.S. because the corporate sector still looks healthy and because it expects more action from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. "The main reasons for our growth downgrade, apart from disappointing incoming data, are recent policy errors in the U.S. and Europe plus the prospect of further fiscal tightening in 2012. A negative feedback loop between weak growth and soggy asset markets now appears to be in the making," Morgan Stanley said. ***Based upon data I believe to be correct: 2011 GGDP was at 3.18% and 2012 GGDP was at 2.5%
--- Not MS, but from Goldman Sachs, JUNE, 2011
Source: Goldman Sachs
Interest rates won't be hiked until 2013
Goldman Sachs While interest rates won't move until 2013, the yield on the U.S. 10-year will rise from 3.0% to 3.75% by the end of 2011, and 4.25% by Q4 2012.
***DIDN'T quite happen with that interest rate thing in 2011, 2012 or 2013, eh ???
Comments
Individual investors play among the ALGO's and other A.I./machine learning, reportedly with 70% of trading involved without direct human intervention; large piles of money moving about from the "educated", the gamblers and the fraudulent cheaters hoping to never to become discovered.
HOWEVER, in particular; I recall the GS, 2011 forecast shown below.
---Morgan Stanley cuts global growth forecasts
Published: Aug 18, 2011 2:54 a.m. ET
SIMON
KENNEDY
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Morgan Stanley said Thursday that the U.S. and euro zone are "hovering dangerously close to recession" as it cut its forecasts for global growth. The broker said it now expects global gross domestic product to rise 3.9% in 2011 and 3.8% in 2012, down from its previous forecast of 4.2% and 4.5% respectively. It added, however, that recession is "not our base case" for Europe and the U.S. because the corporate sector still looks healthy and because it expects more action from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. "The main reasons for our growth downgrade, apart from disappointing incoming data, are recent policy errors in the U.S. and Europe plus the prospect of further fiscal tightening in 2012. A negative feedback loop between weak growth and soggy asset markets now appears to be in the making," Morgan Stanley said.
***Based upon data I believe to be correct: 2011 GGDP was at 3.18% and 2012 GGDP was at 2.5%
--- Not MS, but from Goldman Sachs, JUNE, 2011
Source: Goldman Sachs
Interest rates won't be hiked until 2013
Goldman Sachs
While interest rates won't move until 2013, the yield on the U.S. 10-year will rise from 3.0% to 3.75% by the end of 2011, and 4.25% by Q4 2012.
***DIDN'T quite happen with that interest rate thing in 2011, 2012 or 2013, eh ???
Take care,
Catch