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Howdy @hank This is poo-pooed to an extent, by whomever; but I do look at this stuff, being..... The "death cross": Historically, the pattern precedes a prolonged downturn for both the long-term and short-term moving averages. The death cross is a signal that short-term momentum in a stock or stock index is slowing, but the death cross is not always a reliable indicator that a bull market is about to end.
VT, contains about 8,100 stocks with wide global distribution. VT is not the only area, and another that shows strain, IMHO, with a similar chart; is FAGIX. This fund has a very decent long term record; and is usually 80% hy bonds and the remainder in equity wherever management chooses. At this point, this fund also has the "death cross" in play.
Yes indeed. I have a fund CTFAX (Columbia Thermostat Fund) that buys the dips and sell the rips. I hold this fund within my fixed income sleeve as it is most of the time about 90% bonds. In stock market declines it loads equities and as they recover it then reduces its equity position. Currently fixed income is about 90% of this sleeve as I have some other income funds (within this sleeve) that also holds some equities. I hold enough of CTFAX that with every step buy it makes this increases my equity allocation within this sleeve by about 1%. Currently, it is at its second buy step with the S&P 500 Index at 2691 and will make the third buy should the Index pullback to 2672.
Hi @Old_Skeet Even CTFAX is clawing and scratching right now with the 50, 100 and 200 averages. Not unlike others, price levels are back to the January sell down period.
Hi @Catch22. I rather look at it in this fashion ... it is off its 52 week high by 2.24% while a S&P 500 Index fund that I follow is off its 52 week high by about 8.0%. It's doing what it is suppose to. You can read more about this fund by Googling ... CTFAX Fact Sheet. For me it is a keeper and does what I manually used to do with my spiff buys.
Yes indeed. I have a fund CTFAX (Columbia Thermostat Fund) that buys the dips and sell the rips.
What a novel idea for a fund. I can see the merits of such a fund.
In a similar vein, does anyone know of a fund that sells its winners and buys losers? (a play on the “sell high / buy low” theme). Might make a good complementary fund to CTFAX.
Decidedly “flat” to “negative” responses re Dipping since I posted this about 3 weeks ago.
1. Is anyone now buying the dip?
2. If not, what are the reasons?
(A) Market too overbought / overvalued
(B) Recession looming
(C) Age considerations
(D) Cash returns are now higher
(E) Worried about political situation in U.S.
(F) Trade wars
(G) Worried about ongoing criminal probe of “Individual 1” and associates
(H-Z) Other?
While not dipping yet, I intend to do a rebalance in early January per plan. At last check, while funds with equity exposure had declined a bit, none of my investment sleeves had shifted far enough from “nominal” to warrant any rebalance. I’m kinda hopping for more equity losses in the next few weeks which might provide a reason to buy lower in January.
— - Market to overbought / overvalued >>>many equity sectors from 1 year ago are "oversold" based on technical; but may have further down trend based on some of the below. — - Recession looming >>>slow down, perhaps not what one may consider a recession. Recessions are different for many folks. Those still with low paying jobs have been in recession for many years. — - Cash returns are now higher >>>Nope, money market returns not very high, but help when seeking shelter. —- Trade war >>>Well, when country "a" has country "b" arrest a person from country "c: with direct connections to a central government of a very economically powerful global country; and countries "a" and "c" are already having a pee into the wind contest, yes; stuff could become more problematic —- Worried about political situation in U.S. >>>Folks should be concerned, post mid-term elections; regardless of Dem gains, looking around finds the ideologies as wide as before. You know of the MICH and WISC legislatures "adjusting" stuff to impair the incoming party changes to these states. A large WAR remains firmly in place. - — Worried about ongoing probe of “Individual 1” >>>Same as just above. —- Other? >>>The rock and hard place thing.....for the economy. From 10 years of dirt cheap borrowed money; interest rate increases will put a slow screw to mortgages, auto loans, etc. Options for the sellers: reduce the sell price of the home; for autos, the manufacturer will have to provide more incentive, which will reduce profits. IMHO: We remain in the "this time is different".
Re: “Well, when country "a" has country "b" arrest a person from country "c: with direct connections to a central government of a very economically powerful global country; and countries "a" and "c" are already having a pee into the wind contest, yes; stuff could become more problematic”
I haven’t followed that story from last week too closely. But it seems like the U.S. had a Chinese business executive (equivalent of a U.S. CEO) arrested while transiting through a Canadian airport and extradited to the U.S. to face charges. While I don’t know enough to comment on the justification (or lack there of), it raises some frightening prospects for international travelers. Bloomberg was commenting just this morning about the “tactical advantage” the hub-and-spoke airline structure gives to the U.S. in the trade war. The traveler in this case was on her way to another country and had just stopped in Canada to change planes.
I must say that as someone who routinely travels in and out of Canada a half-dozen times a year, it is getting tougher at the border crossing. On the last trip, Canadian border officers searched my car “top to bottom” looking for contraband before allowing entry into their country - along with heavy interrogation. Delayed the trip over a half-hour. It’s a procedure that does “rattle” one a bit.
@Hank, I looked at your list and for me, B through G fit the "worry" bill. I decided to sell down equity funds by about 20% in my self managed portfolio today.
I've said before, I believe within 6 months to a year we will be hearing that the start of the recession was Oct. 2018, meaning we may already be in one. The Mueller shoes are starting to drop and I wouldn't be surprised impeachment proceedings start by the spring of 2019. My gut gives that scenario at least a 25% chance at this point, and rising.
I'm worried about the impact on the economy of political instability & stupidity, here and elsewhere (eg Brexit). I spent a lot of years as a journalist in so-called "emerging markets" and though the business cycle is a powerful thing, political instability & irresponsiblity (such a trade war) can indeed disrupt it. In the US we're not used to it, but political risk is a real factor in investing in most countries. I think it now is here too.
Also, though I'm a long way from retirement, I'm planning to pay cash for a house early next year, so I've got big short-term needs. Between some sales I did early this year and last week, I've now got what I need.
@Hank, I looked at your list and for me, B through G fit the "worry" bill. I decided to sell down equity funds by about 20% in my self managed portfolio today.
I've said before, I believe within 6 months to a year we will be hearing that the start of the recession was Oct. 2018, meaning we may already be in one. The Mueller shoes are starting to drop and I wouldn't be surprised impeachment proceedings start by the spring of 2019. My gut gives that scenario at least a 25% chance at this point, and rising.
All good thoughs Mike. Hope your approach works for you.
Re “Individual #1”: There’s likely a lot we don’t know going on here. At what point the Republican Senate turns and pushes for “substantive action” is hard to say or foresee.
"At what point the Republican Senate turns and pushes for “substantive action” is hard to say or foresee."
That will only happen after Fox News broadcasts that Individual #1 attempted to use his Russian contacts to order a take-out hit on Mitch McConnell. Of course Individual #1 will deny the whole thing, tweeting that there was NO COLLUSION!!! and that this was just another example of FAKE NEWS!!!
Well ... Somebody bought the dip today. Dow went from negative 400 points in the morning to “in the green” at close. (Most likely autonomous buying by computers pre-loaded with human designed algorithms).
- @ Old_Joe - I think you’re too pessimistic Sir! Eventually: the excretory substance shall strike the swirling blades.
Comments
This is poo-pooed to an extent, by whomever; but I do look at this stuff, being.....
The "death cross": Historically, the pattern precedes a prolonged downturn for both the long-term and short-term moving averages. The death cross is a signal that short-term momentum in a stock or stock index is slowing, but the death cross is not always a reliable indicator that a bull market is about to end.
VT, contains about 8,100 stocks with wide global distribution. VT is not the only area, and another that shows strain, IMHO, with a similar chart; is FAGIX. This fund has a very decent long term record; and is usually 80% hy bonds and the remainder in equity wherever management chooses. At this point, this fund also has the "death cross" in play.
VT (Vanguard's Global Equity) chart
Have watched with hopeful fingers crossed.
Peace,
Catch
Even CTFAX is clawing and scratching right now with the 50, 100 and 200 averages. Not unlike others, price levels are back to the January sell down period.
CTFAX chart
Hang in there,
Catch
In a similar vein, does anyone know of a fund that sells its winners and buys losers? (a play on the “sell high / buy low” theme). Might make a good complementary fund to CTFAX.
only sort of, but you might want to look at DSENX if you do not know of it
1. Is anyone now buying the dip?
2. If not, what are the reasons?
(A) Market too overbought / overvalued
(B) Recession looming
(C) Age considerations
(D) Cash returns are now higher
(E) Worried about political situation in U.S.
(F) Trade wars
(G) Worried about ongoing criminal probe of “Individual 1” and associates
(H-Z) Other?
While not dipping yet, I intend to do a rebalance in early January per plan. At last check, while funds with equity exposure had declined a bit, none of my investment sleeves had shifted far enough from “nominal” to warrant any rebalance. I’m kinda hopping for more equity losses in the next few weeks which might provide a reason to buy lower in January.
2. If not, what are the reasons?
— - Market to overbought / overvalued
>>>many equity sectors from 1 year ago are "oversold" based on technical; but may have further down trend based on some of the below.
— - Recession looming
>>>slow down, perhaps not what one may consider a recession. Recessions are different for many folks. Those still with low paying jobs have been in recession for many years.
— - Cash returns are now higher
>>>Nope, money market returns not very high, but help when seeking shelter.
—- Trade war
>>>Well, when country "a" has country "b" arrest a person from country "c: with direct connections to a central government of a very economically powerful global country; and countries "a" and "c" are already having a pee into the wind contest, yes; stuff could become more problematic
—- Worried about political situation in U.S.
>>>Folks should be concerned, post mid-term elections; regardless of Dem gains, looking around finds the ideologies as wide as before. You know of the MICH and WISC legislatures "adjusting" stuff to impair the incoming party changes to these states. A large WAR remains firmly in place.
- — Worried about ongoing probe of “Individual 1”
>>>Same as just above.
—- Other?
>>>The rock and hard place thing.....for the economy. From 10 years of dirt cheap borrowed money; interest rate increases will put a slow screw to mortgages, auto loans, etc. Options for the sellers: reduce the sell price of the home; for autos, the manufacturer will have to provide more incentive, which will reduce profits.
IMHO: We remain in the "this time is different".
That's All Folks
Re: “Well, when country "a" has country "b" arrest a person from country "c: with direct connections to a central government of a very economically powerful global country; and countries "a" and "c" are already having a pee into the wind contest, yes; stuff could become more problematic”
I haven’t followed that story from last week too closely. But it seems like the U.S. had a Chinese business executive (equivalent of a U.S. CEO) arrested while transiting through a Canadian airport and extradited to the U.S. to face charges. While I don’t know enough to comment on the justification (or lack there of), it raises some frightening prospects for international travelers. Bloomberg was commenting just this morning about the “tactical advantage” the hub-and-spoke airline structure gives to the U.S. in the trade war. The traveler in this case was on her way to another country and had just stopped in Canada to change planes.
I must say that as someone who routinely travels in and out of Canada a half-dozen times a year, it is getting tougher at the border crossing. On the last trip, Canadian border officers searched my car “top to bottom” looking for contraband before allowing entry into their country - along with heavy interrogation. Delayed the trip over a half-hour. It’s a procedure that does “rattle” one a bit.
Here’s the story FWIW. Apologies if someone else has already posted it elsewhere.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/05/business/huawei-cfo-arrest-canada-extradition.html
I've said before, I believe within 6 months to a year we will be hearing that the start of the recession was Oct. 2018, meaning we may already be in one. The Mueller shoes are starting to drop and I wouldn't be surprised impeachment proceedings start by the spring of 2019. My gut gives that scenario at least a 25% chance at this point, and rising.
Also, though I'm a long way from retirement, I'm planning to pay cash for a house early next year, so I've got big short-term needs. Between some sales I did early this year and last week, I've now got what I need.
Regards,
Ted
Re “Individual #1”: There’s likely a lot we don’t know going on here. At what point the Republican Senate turns and pushes for “substantive action” is hard to say or foresee.
That will only happen after Fox News broadcasts that Individual #1 attempted to use his Russian contacts to order a take-out hit on Mitch McConnell. Of course Individual #1 will deny the whole thing, tweeting that there was NO COLLUSION!!! and that this was just another example of FAKE NEWS!!!
-
@ Old_Joe - I think you’re too pessimistic Sir!
Eventually: the excretory substance shall strike the swirling blades.