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The New Safe Haven Durning Stock Market Sell-Offs

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  • Wondering if Long Term corporates bond funds might continue to be the beneficiary of capital appreciation especially if interest rates in this sector move lower. These bonds impact the growth of the private economy...maybe a tax incentive to owns these bonds much like munis might be one way the governments could juice these investment as well as providing liquidity.

    Me thinks you are on to something...
  • Reply to @bee: Some of them already trade at zero or negative spread to treasuries (hi quality companies). i would not count on capital gains here. the asset class will be lucky to collect its interest payments. it will go straight down with increase in interest rates. lower quality companies' debt will continue some correlation with equities, but don't expect much capital appreciation there as well. the spread is tight and 'all in' yield is at historical low while defaults hit the bottom and are poised to rise a bit. again, the investors should be just happy to collect yield at this point in time.
  • edited November 2012
    One article I glimpsed recently favored investment grade corporates. The case: (1) valuations are not as "frothy" as for lower tier bonds. (2) they do well in an improving economy as rating agencies raise issuer's ratings in response to improving financial health. (Ie: an upgrade from BBB to A-B). Capital appreciation comes not from falling rates, but from improved fundamentals reflected in bond valuations. fwiw
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