Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
FYI: The weekly AAII survey released this morning showed the first downtick in bullish sentiment (41.28% down to 35.09%) in three weeks. Given the weakness in the broader equity market, the move lower in bullish sentiment is completely understandable. Regards, Ted https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/individual-investors-showing-uncertainty/
These graphs do not support the proposition that investor uncertainty has made any major departure from its historical volatility levels. This historical data clearly demonstrates that perceptions have always been much more easily changed then reality dictates. It's a real scatter plot. We typically overreact to any new piece of information, good or bad. Over extended time, especially in the deep past, that is a likely explanation of why we survived given our physical limitations.
What has somewhat surprised me is that the data reflects our uncertainty over the merits of investing. That defies logic. The data clearly shows how profitable the markets have been. Yet only 30 to 45 percent of us are bullishly optimistic over a rather long timeframe. We are slow learners and resist change. I suppose that's our nature!
Comments
These graphs do not support the proposition that investor uncertainty has made any major departure from its historical volatility levels. This historical data clearly demonstrates that perceptions have always been much more easily changed then reality dictates. It's a real scatter plot. We typically overreact to any new piece of information, good or bad. Over extended time, especially in the deep past, that is a likely explanation of why we survived given our physical limitations.
What has somewhat surprised me is that the data reflects our uncertainty over the merits of investing. That defies logic. The data clearly shows how profitable the markets have been. Yet only 30 to 45 percent of us are bullishly optimistic over a rather long timeframe. We are slow learners and resist change. I suppose that's our nature!
Best Wishes