Howdy,
A thank you to all who post the links, start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for near retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around.....Short on time this week. Numbers have been updated to current data. Noting the obvious, many equity sectors were weak again this past week, with the exception of some Japanese areas; mostly due to weaker Yen currency. This situation may not remain for any longer term trend. Although one could presume that most bond sectors would have moved positive for the week, with the negative action in equities; only Friday had some broad sector positives in bonds. Exceptions for some of the week were muni's and longer term government issues. One may suspect a longer upward play in muni's, if enough money moves to this area to "avoid" higher investment area tax rates. Generally speaking, most active HY bond funds had losses between .20-.60%, indicating some reflection towards the weak equity sectors. Overall, most bond sectors performed their duty last week in helping to preserve capital. Too many investment areas remain a coin toss, eh? Going towards the yearend and the unknowns; "luck" of where one's portfolio is positioned will likely be the "main" guiding factor for shaping the next six weeks investment returns to modify one's final YTD returns. We're at the investment casino, at this time, in my opinion; whether one recalls buying the bus ticket or not.
The data/numbers below have been updated.
As to sector rotations below (Fidelity funds); for the past week: (Note: any given fund in any of these sectors will have varing degrees of performance based upon where the manager(s) choose to be invested and will not directly reflect upon your particular fund holdings from other vendors.) Sidenote: The average weekly return of 200 combined Fidelity retail funds across all sectors (week avg = - 1.12%, YTD + 9.04%).
--- U.S. equity - 2.6% through - .80%, week avg. = - 1 .5% YTD = + 10.3%
--- Int'l equity - 2.5% through + 1.2%, week avg. = - 1 .7% YTD = + 9.7%
--- Select eq. sectors - 7.7% through + 1.3%, week avg. = - 1.7% YTD = + 9.9%
--- U.S./Int'l bonds - .40% through + .22%, week avg. = - .03% YTD = + 4.1%
--- HY bonds - .86% through - .20%, week avg. = - .51% YTD = + 11%
A Decent Overview, M* 1 Month through 5 Year, Multiple Indexes
You may consider our portfolio to be quite boring, but you may be assured that it moves and bends each and every day; from forces beyond our control.
I have added a few blips related to our portfolio and market observations at the below SELLs/BUYs and Portfolio Thoughts.
SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK: = NONE.
Portfolio Thoughts:
Our holdings had a - .11 % move this past week. We'll continue to watch; but do not have plans at this time, to enter into equity areas.
b> Still plodding along, and we will retain the below write from previous weeks; as what we are watching, still applies. --- commodity pricing, especially the energy and base materials areas; copper and related.
--- the $US broad basket value, and in particular against the Euro and Aussie dollar (EU zone and China/Asia uncertainties).
--- price directions of U.S. treasury's, German bunds, U.K. gilts, Japanese bonds; and continued monitoring of Spanish/Italian bond pricing/yield.
--- what we are watching to help understand the money flows: SHY, IEF, TLT, TIPZ, STPZ, LTPZ, LQD, EMB, HYG, IWM, IYT & VWO; all of which offer insights reflected from the big traders as to the quality/risk, or lack of quality/risk; in various equity/bond sectors.
The Funds Boat is at anchor, riding in the small waves, watching the weather and behind the breakwater barrier. To the high praise of MFO and the members, it is very difficult to find a topic to note here that has not been placed into the discussion boards. Excellence, as usual.
I have retained the following links for those who may choose to do their own holdings comparison against the fund types noted.
The first two links to Bloomberg are for their list of balanced/flexible funds; although I don't always agree with the placement of fund styles in their categories.
Bloomberg BalancedBloomberg FlexibleThese next two links are for conservative and moderate fund leaders YTD, per MSN.
Conservative AllocationModerate AllocationA reflection upon the links above. We attempt to establish a "benchmark" for our portfolio to help us "see" how our funds are performing. Aside from viewing many funds within the balanced/flexible funds rankings (the above links), a quick and dirty group of 5 funds (below) we watch for psuedo benchmarking are the following:
***Note: these week/YTD's per M*
VWINX .... - .57% week, YTD = + 8.42%
PRPFX .... - .78% week, YTD = + 5.01%
SIRRX ..... + .04% week, YTD = + 6.64%
TRRFX .... - .74% week, YTD = + 7.96%
VTENX ... - .62% week, YTD = + 7.31%Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
We live and invest in interesting times, eh? Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense. Comments and questions always welcomed.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
Catch
---Below is what M* x-ray has attempted to sort for our portfolio, as of Nov. 1, 2012 ---
From what I find, M* has a difficult time sorting out the holdings with bond funds.
U.S./Foreign Stocks 1.9%
Bonds 93.9% ***
Other 4.2%
Not Classified 0.00%
Avg yield = 3.99%
Avg expense = .57%
***about 18% of the bond total are high yield category (equity related cousins)---This % listing is kinda generic, by fund "name"; which doesn't always imply the holdings, eh?
-Investment grade bond funds 28.2%
-Diversified bond funds 22.4%
-HY/HI bond funds 14.5%
-Total bond funds 32.4%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds .6%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 1.9%
This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX.LW Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
ACITX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
PONDX Pimco Income fund (steroid version)
PLDDX Pimco Low Duration (domestic/foreign)
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
NONE outright, with the exception of equities held inside some of the above funds.
Comments
All of the portfolio is in tax sheltered accts.....401K, 403b's and IRA's.
Not that muni's have not performed well over the past few years; but we
wouldn't have access to them, except for the IRA monies.
Take care,
Catch