Has a stock market selling stampede now begun?

Old_Skeet

I Vote: Yes _X__ ...or... No ___

Addition comment: I'm thinking the selling will climax around mid term elections and then the markets will turn upward starting a fall stock markey rally as long as good corperate earnings continue and the FOMC does not get crazy with its rate increase program. After all the US 10 Yr currently has a yield of around 3.2% which is now competitive with some good dividend paying stocks from a yield perspective. Should the FOMC continue with their rate increase campaign then the headwinds will become stronger for stocks and perhaps more selling pressure is to come.

Ted

No

hank

Don’t know. Don’t care. Parked all my $$ for 2019 in cash several weeks ago..

On another note, Janet must be smiling ear to ear. Powell sure to receive another scathing by day’s end.

rforno

hank said:

Jerome Powell sure to receive another scathing by day’s end.

No, I think it'll be the rogue traders embedded in that caravan that he blames for the market 'crashing' today.

hank

rforno said:

No, I think it'll be the rogue traders embedded in that caravan that he blames for the market 'crashing' today.

Yep - Some of them do look like the Wall Street type ... (right after 1929).

Sven

No, I think it'll be the rogue traders embedded in that caravan that he blames for the market 'crashing' today.

It is much worst:

Trump declares without evidence that 'Criminals and unknown Middle Easterners are mixed in' with migrant caravan making its way from Honduras

https://cnbc.com/2018/10/22/trump-says-unknown-middle-easterners-are-mixed-in-migrant-caravan.html

The market has been down for the last 12 of 14 trading days. Fear finally got hold of many investors.

JoeD

I thought the markets "LOVED" Trump. I mean, he said it, so it must be true. No???

I hope the market comes down a bit more. Depends on what the algos decide, I guess.
The rogue traders are apparently all busy down in Mexico on some sort of walkabout.

rforno

Markets only 'love' Tweety when they're going up. When they go down, Tweety finds something or someone else (*cough* Powell, Fed) to foist the blame on, b/c his skin is so thin you can practically see through it, and nothing's his fault unless it makes him look bigly or strongly.

JoeD said:

I thought the markets "LOVED" Trump. I mean, he said it, so it must be true. No???

I hope the market comes down a bit more. Depends on what the algos decide, I guess.
The rogue traders are apparently all busy down in Mexico on some sort of walkabout.

JoeD

rforno said:

Markets only 'love' Tweety when they're going up. When they go down, Tweety finds something or someone else (*cough* Powell, Fed) to foist the blame on, b/c his skin is so thin you can practically see through it, and nothing's his fault unless it makes him look bigly or strongly.

Trump (and his minions) have a pecking order for blame. Obama, Hillary, Powell and "Pocahontas". These people cause all the problems in this world - at least, according to a man who is clearly not acquainted with facts or the truth.

I doubt a stock market "collapse" in the next week or so would effect the mid-term elections at all, but the timing would be interesting.

VintageFreak

2 out of 3 of my models are down. I'm ratcheting down towards 33% invested in my retirement accounts. End of month, i'll know what happens to 3rd model.

Old_Skeet

Hi folks: To say that the selling stampede (now in its fourteenth day of market declines) has ended we will need three consecutive up days in the markets. For me, that would be in the S&P 500 Index. I would not be surprised to see the 500 Index pull back into the 2600's possibly on down to the 2500 range. A 500 point upward bounce from these levels would be about a 20% gain. Perhaps, I should consider opening a spiff for an anticipated rebound.

johnN

Maybe... Too early to tell... If you are retiring soon may need 50 50 portfolio... Otherwise sit tight.. We will know in 1-2months for sure. We may indeed get a soft landing, at least DOWS do not go down 2000-4000 points daily for few weeks like in 2008 lol

Old_Skeet

Hi @johnN: You bring up a good point. For me, now being retired and 70+ years of age, should I be making spiffs? Let's look at this a little more in detail. Let's say I make a 15k spiff in VADAX which is an equally weighted S&P 500 Index fund and within a year I get my 20% return or 3k. Now , if I go extremely conserative and put this in a two year cd I'll get $450.00 per year. So, by doing the spiff "if everything goes as planned my return will be about six times more in the spiff but I also have principal at risk and do not in the cd. Since, I am a little overweight in the growh area of my portfolio by 1.2% I'll probally pass on doing the spiff. If, I was a little thin in my growth area allocation weighting I'd probally do the spiff. For now, following good risk management practices, the spiff is a no go option for me since I am overweight equities already in the growth area of my portfolio over and above my neutral allocation weighting. Looks like I'll be doing the cd by yearend as another step in my cd ladder. I might put some more capital to work and do an additional step in the cd ladder.

johnN

Hi Old-Skeet Sir: or buy/place a small portions into some safe BBB+ or muni BBB+ or higher rating/US T -bonds; yields maybe much better and you don;t worry about the company NAV/stock price fluctations daily/monthly basis. Chance of these bankrupcies ~ <5% yearly basis. I think better yield than CDs I think. ATT, verizon, Walmart, Home depot, Costco, Simons-mall or Macys probably will not bankrupt and their yields about 5-6% but durations maybe too long [unless we have WWIII or end to mankind]. Probably mixed CDs/ corp bond ETFs/funds and private corp bonds may be best

You may consider/need to give it to your kids w/ living wills

Old_Skeet

Hi @johnN: Thanks for bringing up transfer to others. I do have in place TOD's (Transfer on Death) provissions on my accounts so these invested assets pass outside of my Will to those named in the TOD. It is much easier to change the TOD than have a rewrite of my Will.

johnN

https://www.thebalance.com/the-risks-of-corporate-bonds-417101

JoeD

Feels like we need a really, really "down" day to finish off this slow-drip pullback. Like maybe a -4% or -5% drop during one trading session.

prinx

Old _ Skeet: How does Tod's differ from Revocable trust to transfer assets outside of will?
prinx

JoeD

JoeD said:

Feels like we need a really, really "down" day to finish off this slow-drip pullback. Like maybe a -4% or -5% drop during one trading session.

Guess I got my wish, almost. "Thank you, sir. May I please have another?"

Old_Skeet

Hi @prinx: Thank you for your question. I called my broker to see what I needed to do to put a TOD provision on my account. It must be something a good number of folks are doing because they had a formated form that I completed and had notorized. And, that was it; and, now my TOD beneficaries show on my monthly statement.

The below link will provide more information about this.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/transferondeath.asp

Derf

@Old_Skeet: Thanks for posting info on TOD. I've tried three or four times to do a multiple beneficiaries at Vanguard and had no luck via the internet. Guess it's time to make a call & find out what I'm doing wrong.
Derf

VintageFreak

@Derf I didn't have any trouble, but now that you are saying it, I'm going to go and check tomorrow. Are you saying settings got messed up or? I had my wife as primary and kids as secondary

johnN

Hi derf.. I thought it was very easy just fill the form out /online and mail or faxed it back. We did everything mail and faxed and was completed no problems

https://www.google.com/search?q=Vanguard+tod&oq=Vanguard+tod&gs_l=mobile-heirloom-serp.12..0l5.2405.10662.0.13020.12.8.0.4.4.0.195.1306.0j8.8.0....0...1c.1.34.mobile-heirloom-serp..0.12.1413.y5FGN7ovZIk

Derf

@VF: I tried to do 3 primary with different % in retirement account. I think its being a retirement account that's causing me grief.

Old_Skeet

Hello: As we have now closed the week of October 26, 2018 the S&P 500 Index is off its 52 week high by about 9.7% and just short of being in correction territory. As stocks have cascaded lower during the month of October they have, from my perspective, become extremely oversold. Since, short interest in the S&P 500 Index is now down to 1.5 days to cover from 2.5 days earlier in the month I look for a floor to start forming where some upward movement can perhaps be coming. However, to say, a selling stampede has ended we must have three consecutive up days of higher closings.

Thanks for stopping by, for reading; and, for making comment if you desire.

I wish all ... "Good Investing."

Old_Skeet

AndyJ

Derf said:

@VF: I tried to do 3 primary with different % in retirement account. I think its being a retirement account that's causing me grief./blockquote>

Several years ago, at least, that was the case at V. They wouldn't let me set up a TOD on an IRA at all. I called for clarification and (as usual for Vanguard) got transferred around all over the campus until finally got to speak to someone who knew something about their policy choice, who somewhat arrogantly and defiantly told me of course we don't do those on IRAs, there are so many different state laws on them.

No idea if that was legally even remotely true, but it was among the last of many straws for me; I took my business to Fidelity, where establishing and changing TODs for taxable and retirement accounts, whenever you want, are easily accomplished yourself online, no forms, no unnecessary gatekeeper.

rono

Howdy folks,

Hard to say. So much is riding on the midterms. If just the house rolls over and not the senate, we get gridlock and with all the stimuli in place we should have a great Santa Claus rally. If the house and the senate roll over, look out below. '87 will seem like a bloody picnic.

and so it goes,

peace,

rono

catch22

Hi @rono
So, a lame duck session will be in place; regardless, until any new members are sworn in for 2019 duty in the new Congress. No, this may not mean anything for this group in Congress now, but NAFTA passed during a lame duck session, eh?
Are you suggesting that if Congress moves to the Dems side of life; a type of full blown turmoil will result?
I'm attempting to determine the negative ramifications to the market place, in addition to the shakiness now in place. I honestly am not sure what one might anticipate.
Might you provide a few deeper insights into your gut feelings?
Thank you,
Catch

Old_Joe

@rono- Hello there! You're sounding rather apocalyptic today... why do you feel that a Democratic congress would be so devastating? Your political opinions and leanings are usually pretty well-balanced and even-handed, so this seems out of context for you.

Always appreciate your posts-
OJ

davidrmoran

there might be some tax fears, but my hunch, vague and only hunchy, is that anything that derails the current political course will result eventually in a degree of exuberation

JoeD

In the words of the immortal GW Bush "This sucker could go down".