Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
I suppose some people and organizations (e.g. CMS) will celebrate anything.
When you include all policies in those 39 [Medicare.gov exchange] states, both on- and off-exchange, the weighted average is actually a 1.8% increase, and when you include all plans, on and off-exchange, in all 50 states +DC, it's around a 3.1% increase. ...
The larger issue is that regardless of how much rates are increasing or, in some states, decreasing in 2019 compared to 2018, they'll still be a whopping 30% higher than they were in 2017, with the vast bulk of that due specifically to sabotage actions taken by the Trump Administration and Congressional Republicans.
Reiterating a comment of mine, rack rate is relatively meaningless, except to the extent that it conveys the rise in actual cost of health care in the nation. Most people are subsidized, so as individuals they don't feel the pain of retail prices. Further, low income subscribers still receive CSRs (they're still written into law).
The main thing new for this year is the lowering of the penalty to $0 for not buying insurance.
On the one hand, since the penalty was already too low, dropping it to $0 may not have had as much impact as anticipated. People who bought insurance even though the penalty was (relatively) small in 2018 will likely buy it again in 2019. On the other hand, we have all the insurers' filings asking to charge several percent higher premiums specifically to cover the higher average costs they expect to see with $0 penalty in place (due to healthier subscribers dropping out).
If we look at the Kaiser study (first half 2018) cited by Sanger, we see a medical loss ratio (MLR) of 69%. If that holds for the rest of the year, some subscribers should expect to get refunds, since insurers cannot keep more than 20% of the premiums for overhead and profit. Throw that into the mix, and 2019's premiums could be significantly higher than 2018's premiums (net after refunds).
For a picture of how medical costs are still going up roughly 1½ times the rate of inflation (SS COLA 2.8% for 2019), here's ACASignup's piece on Mass rates:
Comments
(sigh) OK, let's take a look at CMS's "rate drop" claims... (ACASignups.net)
Reiterating a comment of mine, rack rate is relatively meaningless, except to the extent that it conveys the rise in actual cost of health care in the nation. Most people are subsidized, so as individuals they don't feel the pain of retail prices. Further, low income subscribers still receive CSRs (they're still written into law).
The main thing new for this year is the lowering of the penalty to $0 for not buying insurance.
On the one hand, since the penalty was already too low, dropping it to $0 may not have had as much impact as anticipated. People who bought insurance even though the penalty was (relatively) small in 2018 will likely buy it again in 2019. On the other hand, we have all the insurers' filings asking to charge several percent higher premiums specifically to cover the higher average costs they expect to see with $0 penalty in place (due to healthier subscribers dropping out).
If we look at the Kaiser study (first half 2018) cited by Sanger, we see a medical loss ratio (MLR) of 69%. If that holds for the rest of the year, some subscribers should expect to get refunds, since insurers cannot keep more than 20% of the premiums for overhead and profit. Throw that into the mix, and 2019's premiums could be significantly higher than 2018's premiums (net after refunds).
For a picture of how medical costs are still going up roughly 1½ times the rate of inflation (SS COLA 2.8% for 2019), here's ACASignup's piece on Mass rates:
Massachusetts: APPROVED 2019 #ACA rate hikes: "less than 5.0%" (NO 2018 #ACASabotage impact for obvious reasons)
http://acasignups.net/18/09/13/massachusetts-approved-2019-aca-rate-hikes-less-50-no-2018-acasabotage-impact-obvious
A somewhat wonky discussion of CSRs and also how (as described above), one may expect premium rebates on 2018 premiums:
http://acasignups.net/18/10/09/trumps-csr-cut-fail-complete-judge-orders-feds-pay-anyway