FYI: The financial crisis brought the global economy to the brink, with many regarding the bankruptcy of investment bank Lehman Brothers in September 2008 as the seminal moment of the great recession. That same year, the U.S. housing market went under water, J.P. Morgan acquired Bear Stearns in record time as it too faced collapse, stock markets crashed and the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to their lowest in history. Ten years on, the J.P. Morgan Research team explores what has changed and what the future could hold for the global economy and markets
Regards,
Ted
https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/research/10-years-after-crisis
Comments
I live practically across from the Pentagon - but I felt more existential dread during Sep-Oct '08 than I did on 9/11 even as smoke blew across my balcony for 4 days afterward.
On Fridays during '08 you felt a relief as the markets closed, knowing you had at least a day before the next likely spot of bad news would come out Sunday night before Asia opened.
I remember trading futures the day they took the first TARP vote in the House -- the one that failed and tanked the Dow 1000 points that hour. Forget CNBC, the markets were locked onto CSPAN and the vote count.
The only good (if not admittedly greedy & self-serving) thing about those days was that you could take much of the day off, and then come in, throw on some short futures positions around 2:30-3PM and let them ride water-flume style until the close, netting yourself a BIG profit on the day. You could do that pretty much like clockwork back then -- if you knew what you were doing, obviously! Heck, you didn't need to throw down an over-leveraged position if you didn't want to ... just 4 or 8 eminis would score you a VERY nice win on the day. (I think the most I ever traded were 16 eminis at one time ... I got a profit but it made me too uncomfortable, so I didn't do it again.)
Forecasting the future, especially in financial matters, is indeed hazardous duty. Countless books and articles on forecasting accuracy (more like inaccuracy) can easily fill bookshelves. I own many and hopefully have learned just a little to dampen and control my emotional impulses. Among the many famous authors in this crowded field is Phil Tetlock. He has generated and documented much useful insights in this challenging fleld of study.
Here is a Link to one of his videos that just might interest and instruct you:
As a general observation, most proclaimed forecasting experts have poor records. Keeping score uncovers their frequent shortfalls. These failed experts have deep knowledge in one area. Most likely, true experts have reasonable knowledge in many diverse areas. Tetlock has identified these experts and their special characteristics over many decades of study.. It is not a short time task. Tetlock has called these few real experts "superforecasters".
I am not a member of that elite group.
Best Wishes