FYI: Would you be interested in an indicator with more 100 years of history, an excellent record at calling multi-generational tops in the U.S. stock market, and which has just flashed only its sixth sell signal since 1895?
Of course you would. That’s because most of the indicators with solid long-term records — such as the Cyclically-Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio, or CAPE, made famous by Yale University professor and Nobel laureate Robert Shiller — have been in “sell” mode for so long that many have stopped paying attention.
The “Sound Advice Risk Indicator” is a different story. This indicator, the brainchild of Gray Cardiff, editor of the Sound Advice newsletter, is derived from the ratio of the S&P 500 SPX, +0.33% to the median price of a new U.S. house. For the first time since the late 1990s, and for only the sixth time since 1895, this indicator has risen above the 2.0 level that represents a major sell signal for equities. (See accompanying chart.)
Regards,
Ted
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-markets-latest-sell-signal-has-happened-only-5-other-times-since-1895-2018-08-21/print
