FYI:
.Investors are wise to look at more granular classifications of the business cycle and not just relatively infrequent NBER recessions.
.Yield-curve slopes and equity market returns can be used as nowcasting signals to identify turning points of the business cycle.
.Market signals are implying a number of developed markets—notably, Japan, the United States, and Germany—are now entering the correction phase of the business cycle. Trade wars, Brexit, debt issues in Italy and Spain, and political problems in Germany and Italy can make the road ahead a lot bumpier than the road we have grown accustomed to.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/research-affiliates-where-global-economy-going?nopaging=1
