FYI: Economic predictions are wonderfully useful...after the fact. A fund manager sent back to 1973 and stripped of his investment memories, save for knowing that inflation and commodity prices would soar for many years before subsiding, would thrash his rivals over the ensuing decades. He would be long commodities and short bonds, before switching to stocks in the early 1980s. Toss him a second tidbit--the 2008 housing collapse--and his victory would be complete. His fund would have the best 35-year track record in the business.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/873681/are-economic-predictions-ever-useful.html
Comments
But fun too.
It depends. It depends on the timeframe of the forecast. Economic research that records the long term average returns and the variability of various asset class returns are indeed very useful inputs to my investment decision making. It establishes the likely outcomes and risk potential for the future. That's helpful when making asset allocation decisions.
Here is a Link that demonstrates the usefulness of such a study for a small number of stock investment groupings:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/8-lessons-from-80-years-of-market-history-2014-11-19
This data teaches useful investment lessons that I need not learn from costly and time eroding personal experience. Knowing history is important and research generates that knowledge.
Best Wishes