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Barron's Cover Story: 2018 Mid-Year Roundtable: Good News For Stockpickers
Just quickly read over the print edition. Not much there. (The nine participants didn’t really meet, but phoned in their comments.) Barron’s did show each participant’s January stock picks and how each has performed over the last six months. Generally the results were poor (You would have lost money). The one exception seemed to be Henry Ellenbogen, manager of T. Rowe Price’s New Horizons Fund. His picks were wildly positive. Three of his six picks have gained over 30% since January. And one of those was up nearly 44%.
Most were cautious to downright pessimistic on the prospects for equities over the next year or two. Only Gabelli (who often acts like he’s got a stick up his ***) was positive. Gabelli was also the only one to sing the praises of the current Prez. Reasons for the pessimism varied, but mostly focused on the “macro political” environment. Ellenbogen, for example, thinks the Dems will win the House in the mid-terms and that political strife will greatly intensify from what it is now to the detriment of the economy and markets. Gundlach worries about the trade war and suggests a recession will arrive in ‘19. Others voiced concerns about the upheaval in relations with our trading partners / defense allies in Europe. And one or two is worried that the combination of deficit spending (ala the tax cuts) plus rising interest rates will throw the budget into the toilet.
Overall, a glum group. Each had a few picks. Defensive plays like media and consumer staples were mentioned. Gundlach sees rates rising further and likes short term corporates.
@davidmoran - no idea on my part. I subscribe just to the print edition. Don’t even attempt to view what Ted links. Seems to me @Ted should provide assistance to you and others attempting to view the digital version. Otherwise, why post the link?
I usually am one who nags others to pony up and subscribe, so am not sympathetic as a rule to my own plight, even as I just let me print $ sub lapse a month ago.
Gabelli has been famously prickly, to put it nicely, for decades. I like him chiefly because he does real and novel company digging, like some of the Fido crowd. His general results are seldom superior, though, partly because he so overpays himself.
New Horizon has done well this year. So have to give Henry Ellenbogen credit for his stock picking skills. Unfortunately many of T. Rowe Price smaller cap funds are closed to new investors including New Horizon fund.
Comments
Most were cautious to downright pessimistic on the prospects for equities over the next year or two. Only Gabelli (who often acts like he’s got a stick up his ***) was positive. Gabelli was also the only one to sing the praises of the current Prez. Reasons for the pessimism varied, but mostly focused on the “macro political” environment. Ellenbogen, for example, thinks the Dems will win the House in the mid-terms and that political strife will greatly intensify from what it is now to the detriment of the economy and markets. Gundlach worries about the trade war and suggests a recession will arrive in ‘19. Others voiced concerns about the upheaval in relations with our trading partners / defense allies in Europe. And one or two is worried that the combination of deficit spending (ala the tax cuts) plus rising interest rates will throw the budget into the toilet.
Overall, a glum group. Each had a few picks. Defensive plays like media and consumer staples were mentioned. Gundlach sees rates rising further and likes short term corporates.
Regards
Gabelli has been famously prickly, to put it nicely, for decades. I like him chiefly because he does real and novel company digging, like some of the Fido crowd. His general results are seldom superior, though, partly because he so overpays himself.