Very busy at this house; but take a bit of time to catch this or that for the markets.
The tariff wars (pending or otherwise) are receiving the threats from other countries; as in, "okay, slam a tariff; we'll play the game" and await you "crying uncle".
So, we have Canada, Mexico, EU, India and China as the major announcers OF "tariffs to you", too.
SP-500, to use as a U.S. gauge, is so-so YTD; and one knows a lot of this gain is from the better performing sectors, tech., health, con. discretionary...............so, if these areas start to go to heck; well others suffer, too.
One finds the global today (June 18) not being very happy, not a trend yet, eh?
https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/etf-monitor?orderBy=percentChange&orderDir=desc I'll provide a flash back from 10 years ago (June 16, 2008, Monday).
Our portfolio had its high value point on Oct. 31, 2007 (Halloween Day). International holdings had begun to become more erratic, but most U.S. equity was still fairly happy.
News, data and related going into the end of 2007, especially in Dec. 2007 kept my attention. We watched an erratic equity market for another 6 months; along with the news and data. December of 2007 had very large swings in daily equity.
On June 16, 2008, Monday; we sold 87% of our portfolio.
An existing bond fund holding was kept in place, PTTRX . The equity sells monies were moved into either "stable value" or money market, depending upon the choices at the time. During this period, both stable value and MM were yielding about 5% APR.
With a smile and a head shake I thought about the date this past weekend and being 10 years out from June, 2008.
Currently, we're 51% equity, 95% which is U.S.; all being in tech. and healthcare.
We'll be watching this week more so, as time allows.
Good fortune to all,
Catch
Comments
To answer the original question: No - The tariff war won’t drive me in any direction. I avoid investing based on macro political considerations. Even macro economic considerations do little to shape my investment decisions. I do, however, vary risk exposure based on perceived valuations and trends (especially trend duration). Both of these have had me relatively conservatively positioned for more than a year now. Nothing’s changed much in that regard.
A slight change has been to add a couple % to the inflation hedges and cull a couple % out of fixed income over the past 6 months. That’s related to the macro economic aspect - and we’ll see if it pans out. I will say that most income funds are having a rough year. However, the commodity stuff and real estate have been very mixed - nothing to write home about yet.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/18/trump-says-he-has-asked-ustr-to-identify-200-billion-in-chinese-goods-for-additional-tariffs-at-10-percent-rate.html
Eventually, all of this tariff stuff is going to drive the equity technicals to a sell; as least for a time period.
NO/YES???
Real Time Futures Markets
...Which one(s) is going to bite your portfolio in the arse tomorrow???
Hey, at the very least; we may get a bit of inflation; perhaps that will be the trigger for slowed consumer spending in general. This kind of stuff will get a trend line going, eh?
As the saying goes; keep your powder dry.
Good Evening,
Catch
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/41758/investors-are-bailing-from-emerging-market-etfs#latest
Yes.......emerging markets broadly have been negative since the market whack in late January; with average down of 10-12%. Some U.S. equity sectors continued positive to quasi flat.