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NYMEX off near 4% in 1 day? Gold off $26 to $1282? Those are big 1 day moves compared to recent behavior. Gotta guess the dollar bumped higher as well. Ummm ... maybe a delayed reaction to Fed tightening? Economy’s sizzling so you would think demand for energy would be strong during peak driving season.
Okay, I've said this before. Do not overANALyze. My ANALysis of sudden down moves in oil, gold, emerging market funds is dollar moving upward. Just look at the chart. I use it to time my buys in international / emerging.
I thought $ was going to turn down again though. But it turned up again. Just watch it.
You are correct that short term moves mean little. But looking at how steady oil & gold have been over a fairly long term (about a year) the swift move caught my attention. Yes - Stronger dollar should equal weaker commodity prices. And, higher interest rates often help strengthen the U.S. Dollar.
Perhaps the economy is not as strong as believed and commodities are in ample supply. Thus a decline in their price. Anyway, my commodities security fund recenently made a sizeable dividend distribution of close to 30 cents per share which was about 4.5% of its nav at the time of distribution.
Rates go up Dollar goes down Emerging/International "value" outperforms Gold does well
That's how I've been thinking for some time and I have also been wrong. I even purchased TRP Emerging Value for my MIL. My SFGIX position is suffering. I smartly sold WAEMX since I am looking to exit TDA. Then started purchasing at Schwab, but now I will "hurry up slowly".
I've also been creeping into VGPMX instead of putting more in TGLDX where I'm losing my shirt.
If emerging markets tank another 10% I'm going to break my rule and buy both ARTZX and ARTYX.
Meanwhile I've given up on my Too Big To Fail bank giving me any interest. It is simply pathetic how over past few months all MM funds have increased their distributions significantly while big banks will not budge. Looking to move money into high yielding FDIC insured savings accounts.
Rates go up Dollar goes down Emerging/International "value" outperforms Gold does well
Let’s look at those assumptions:
Rates go up - Long or short term? The Fed seems intent to raise short term rates. But that could actually cause longer term rates to fall if investors sense it will cause a cooling of the economy. The Fed has little (if any) control over longer term rates.
Dollar goes down - Maybe if longer rates fell the dollar might go down (as it might signal recession). But rising short term rates should strengthen the dollar as foreign investors shift money to U.S. short term Treasuries.
Emerging/International "value" outperforms - You got me on this one. But it appears “easy money” in the U.S. and elsewhere is helpful to most risky assets (like EM stocks and bonds) since investors find it cheaper to borrow money for speculative purposes. (Personally, I’ll gamble on just about anything after it falls 50% or more from previous highs. That would include EM stocks or bonds - which I don’t presently own.)
Gold does well - It should. But gold is so erratic you can’t count on it to do anything. I think sometimes it reacts to what the big holders see coming 10 or 15 years out. Than again, sometimes it reacts to past trends. There’s no weirder or less predictable investment than gold - IMHO.
@VintageFreak, that is true, but who would put there money there anyway when there are FDIC insured internet banks that pay closer to 1.8%. Heck, my IRA cash is in a Schwab MM at 1.7%. It could be that big brick-and-mortar banks just don't want to be competitive, on purpose. Not shameful, just their business plan.
Comments
I thought $ was going to turn down again though. But it turned up again. Just watch it.
You are correct that short term moves mean little. But looking at how steady oil & gold have been over a fairly long term (about a year) the swift move caught my attention. Yes - Stronger dollar should equal weaker commodity prices. And, higher interest rates often help strengthen the U.S. Dollar.
Just something to Yawn about.
Rates go up
Dollar goes down
Emerging/International "value" outperforms
Gold does well
That's how I've been thinking for some time and I have also been wrong. I even purchased TRP Emerging Value for my MIL. My SFGIX position is suffering. I smartly sold WAEMX since I am looking to exit TDA. Then started purchasing at Schwab, but now I will "hurry up slowly".
I've also been creeping into VGPMX instead of putting more in TGLDX where I'm losing my shirt.
If emerging markets tank another 10% I'm going to break my rule and buy both ARTZX and ARTYX.
Meanwhile I've given up on my Too Big To Fail bank giving me any interest. It is simply pathetic how over past few months all MM funds have increased their distributions significantly while big banks will not budge. Looking to move money into high yielding FDIC insured savings accounts.
Rates go up - Long or short term? The Fed seems intent to raise short term rates. But that could actually cause longer term rates to fall if investors sense it will cause a cooling of the economy. The Fed has little (if any) control over longer term rates.
Dollar goes down - Maybe if longer rates fell the dollar might go down (as it might signal recession). But rising short term rates should strengthen the dollar as foreign investors shift money to U.S. short term Treasuries.
Emerging/International "value" outperforms - You got me on this one. But it appears “easy money” in the U.S. and elsewhere is helpful to most risky assets (like EM stocks and bonds) since investors find it cheaper to borrow money for speculative purposes. (Personally, I’ll gamble on just about anything after it falls 50% or more from previous highs. That would include EM stocks or bonds - which I don’t presently own.)
Gold does well - It should. But gold is so erratic you can’t count on it to do anything. I think sometimes it reacts to what the big holders see coming 10 or 15 years out. Than again, sometimes it reacts to past trends. There’s no weirder or less predictable investment than gold - IMHO.