This article in Politico, outlines what I think is a convincing scenario: that Mueller will wrap this up by July or so.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/05/21/3-predictions-for-what-mueller-will-do-next-218410I think it makes sense to prepare for some market impact. If he presents (as I expect) convincing evidence of crimes by the President of the United States, then we could be heading for a constitutional crisis and the market could take a hit, no? Alternately, if it's all a nothingburger, markets might be pleased.
What surprised me about the article was how close we may be to hearing from Mueller, one way or the other.
Comments
Well, I don't choose to enter the political discussions that enter into, otherwise investing threads here; but we investors, among other ramifications into many other areas are indeed affected from "bi-polar, with modifiers" of others actions, with current machinations from the land of D.C.-ville; be they legal or decision making entanglements.
Related to the investing side, regardless of political/legal, etc. relative to our gov't. being able to function.
Possible investment decisions to be very good at..... :
---fully understand one's self
---fully understand whether one is able to identify and stay with a trend, until it no longer is....as with equity growth vs equity value, and perhaps particular sectors only at any given time frame
---OR hopefully and luckily choose 3-10 successful active managers in sectors
---OR index only, with 3-10 diversified choices
---OR fully diversify a portfolio in whatever fashion; 3-10 choices are more than enough
OR, GET the hell out of active investing and buy CD's or something one is comfortable with.....
Lastly, I smile when politicians speak or write from the land of D.C. and they feel assured they can out-fox the Chinese government in matters of trade and global influence today.
Some of this is "get elected again", some of it is wishful thinking and some of it is they don't know, that they don't know; among other choices available. IMHO, too many get stuck in the "jingoism", having been influenced one way or another through their life and not fully realizing the condition. Jingoism can have negative side affects. The most destructive form from my observations over many years (3 years living outside of the U.S.; 2 years among a Chinese population and 1 year in Europe/North Africa) is that blinders go in place (a nationalism) and folks can't "see" the merits of other groups, other than virtues of their own or those whom they support and agree.
As to manipulation in trade/tariff and other country(s) functions; it surely is not able to be pointed at just one country on the planet. No manipulation by the U.S. of anything? Okay, ya; sure.
The changes that are in place now and will continue to arrive, is that technology will continue to allow the yet unknown bright thinkers among the young and the old from the smallest of towns around the globe to come forth and present ideas that may impact many global societies in many positive forms. I'm fully gracious that I was born and raised in this country and what I have had and do have access to today; but this country is by no means the only place on the planet with bright and caring people attempting to have a better life.
If the "Art of the Deal" fixes all of the ills; someone needs to bookmark this page to contact me in the future, if I'm still alive and here, too. I will rewrite my portion here.
jin·go·ism
ˈjiNGɡōˌizəm/Submit
nounderogatory
extreme patriotism, especially in the form of aggressive or warlike foreign policy.
synonyms: extreme patriotism, chauvinism, extreme nationalism, xenophobia, flag-waving; hawkishness, militarism, belligerence, bellicosity
"a newspaper known for its jingoism"
POTUS 180 thingy on trade with China, the bi-polar
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-steel-tumbling-trump-does-151600382.html
Regards,
Catch
Regards,
Ted
Yes, so far; surprisingly........almost. But, money pretty much overrides so many global twitches. We're all witness to this aspect.
Unless Trump's own party turns against him, whatever Mueller does will generate lots of fodder for Media and throw Markets into turmoil and whatever else. Only for Trump to get into another scandal for everyone to focus on. The fact that after all these scandals he is still President is telling.
We elected a p***y grabber as President. Now stop grabbing at straws. If Dems strategy for 2020 is Robert Mueller, which it basically seems to be....good luck..not!
Now I will wait for markets to fall and fund managers to blame it on Mueller, Trump, or both, but not their incompetence.
@Maurice: I would find it very hard to disagree with your observation.