...People are still selling stock funds and buying bond funds.
Actually, they're buying even more bond funds than in recent weeks.
http://ici.org/research/stats/flows/flows_09_19_12Bond funds had estimated inflows of $8.11 billion, compared to estimated inflows of $5.28 billion during the previous week.
Equity funds had estimated outflows of $3.30 billion for the week, compared to estimated outflows of $3.09 billion in the previous week
"This brings the total cumulative outflow year to date to $92 billion. The same period in 2011 had a total outflow of $79 billion, even though the market now is not only higher than it was in 2011, but the highest it has been since 2007"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/retail-investors-just-say-no-bernankes-artificial-wealth-effect
Comments
However, given the outflow from equities are smaller than movement into bonds, some of the money should be coming out of money market which pays nothing. Even under these conditions, it looks like they are taking a small amount of risk and this is what Fed wants anyway. Purchasing of bonds means cheaper funds for businesses which could help the bottom line of the corporations and thus the economy.
(1) EM bond funds have been hot and profitable for several years - with returns eclipsing some equity funds. Risk-reward here is closer to that of equities than to bonds.
(2) High yield bond funds have been quite profitable. Again, these appear more "equity-like" than "bond-like" as measured by risk-reward characteristics.
(3) International bonds differ from domestics in that they may be considered a hedge against substantial Dollar weakness. (U.S. Treasuries, to the contrary, would seem a poor investment should the Dollar weaken substantially.)
(4) The reported inflows probably include short & ultra-short funds , along with hybrids like RPSIX, HSTRX & RPHYX. No doubt these have become substitutes for cash for a growing number of investors. While technically bond funds, "income fund" might more accurately describe this segment. They certainly don't carry the same degree of rate sensitivity (risk) as more traditional bond funds.
(5) Most importantly - With the equity bull well into its fourth year, some of these bond fund inflows may reflect substantial profits being taken from equities. As long as it's going into the short-term & hybrid segments, I'm not sure that's a bad idea. FWIW
"Question: If interest rates rise, what will typically happen to bond prices? Only 21% of the 2009 FINRA National Financial Capability Study knew that the answer was “They will fall.” The same question to a group of active U.S. military got only a 30% correct response rate. In a 2010 Northwest Mutual survey, only 41% knew the relationship between interest rates and bond prices. This may go part of the way to explaining why fixed income products - mutual funds and exchange traded funds, not to mention individual bonds – still enjoy strong money flows despite record low interest rates. What happens to retail investor confidence in these investments when interest rates rise is, therefore, impossible to know."
I'd be curious how much of retail inflow is to something like emerging market bonds. I'd think it far more likely that the majority of inflows were to things much more vanilla.
The other thing to keep in mind is that there's a perception that practically everything is overpriced, and if that's the case, you're better off with relatively more bonds in a portfolio because of the lower risk of bonds overall. The scare stories about bonds mostly focus on what could happen to long-term Treasuries.
Look at 2005 (actually about mid-04 to mid-06) to see how badly diversified bond funds got whacked when interest rates went up last time. (Right, they didn't at all.) Not to say that it'll be exactly the same next time, but it's an indication of the basic risk of loss in a good bond fund when rates rise. Compare that to what happens to stocks in a correction or bear.
Then there's the retirement angle, which as has been discussed here, is leading people to reduce stock risk in their portfolios.
There's nothing irrational about buying/owning diversified bonds in general.
You noted: " There's nothing irrational about buying/owning diversified bonds in general."
Whew.........as I have been wondering if the old investment gyroscope had a bearing going bad.
- High Yield Bond (PRHYX) ..... $9,343 Mil
- Short Term Bond (PRWBX) .. $6,745 Mil
- Spectrum Income (RPSIX)* ... $6,415 Mil (*hybrid - also holds equities)
- International Bond (RPIBX) ... $4,990 Mil
- Emerging Markets (PREMX).. $3,610 Mil
- Ginny May (PRGMX) ............. $1,819 Mil
- Corporate Income (PRPIX) ....... $653 Mil
- U.S. Treasury Long (PRULX) ... $589 Mil
- Inflation Protected (PRIPX) ....... $566 Mil
- Emerging Markets - Local
Currency (PRELX) ......................... $48 Mil
(List does not include all TRP bond funds)
Link: "Things you won't go broke underestimating"
http://www.quotecounterquote.com/2011/04/5-things-you-wont-go-broke.html
Thanks for your hard work/efforts with the data.
PRIPX indicates $564 million.
Take care,
Catch