Mark Hulbert: Stock Guru Who Called S&P 500 Gains Sees No New Market High Before October

Ted

FYI: Sam Eisenstadt says investors can expect mediocre six-month returns.

Investors should give up any hope that the stock market will hit a new high within the next six months.

That at least is the latest forecast from Sam Eisenstadt, the former research director at Value Line Inc. Though he retired in 2009 after 63 years at that firm, he continues to update and refine a complex econometric model that generates six-month forecasts for the broader U.S. market. That model’s latest projection is that the S&P 500 SPX, -2.19% will be trading at 2,775 on Sep. 30 of this year — more than 3% below its January all-time high.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-guru-who-called-sp-500-gains-sees-no-new-market-high-before-october-2018-04-06/print

bee

Predicting that The S&P 500 will fluctuate in a normal manner is stating fact not projection.

I think we're beginning to return to the "Old Normal"...away from Bill Gross's "New Normal".

There will be unpredictable hiccups along the way.

Unpredictable is still unpredictable...some human-made (war, greed)...some not (epidemic, natural disasters).

These events are called black swans for a reason.

Societe General produces a yearly chart of their best attempt at predicting back swan risk and their potential impact on markets, but even these are just predictions.

2016


2017


Rueter's Dec 2017 article on Top 10 2018 Risks:
us-global-markets-black-swans-how-2018-may-surprise-you

Deutsche Bank top 30 VIX risks (to up and down side)

Ted

@MFO Members: Its always refreshing to get a intelligent mature response like bee's to one of my links rather than the recent immature stream of nonsense that has appeared on the board by a handful of hopefully soon to be ex-members of MFO !
Regards,
Ted

davidrmoran

>> recent immature stream of nonsense that has appeared on the board by a handful of hopefully soon to be ex-members of MFO !

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/SeparateForthrightHart-max-1mb.gif

Ted

@davidmoran: You took the bait, as one who recent immature stream of nonsense that has appeared on the board.

LewisBraham

@Ted Any MFO member who once posted "Blow Up Wife"--https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/91319/#Comment_91319--should not be talking about immaturity. People in glass houses....