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Well, I have not posted for awhile; but just could not resist this one. The writer does not indicate what benchmark is being used; so, I will presume the market common benchmark of the SP-500 is the reference. I'll offer this chart of active managed funds of which this house has had money invested at one time or another. I'm sure there are other funds. These are just 3 with which I am familiar. Chart time frame = March 6, 2009 - March 23, 2018, just about 9 exact. You be the judge of the info in the article. NOTE: chart wouldn't set today for time frame, but you'll be able to judge with your eyes from March, 2009.
" ... In fact, not a single mutual fund has beaten the market since 2009. "
There's your first clue that the writer is statistically challenged. Is the question about outperformance since 2009 (i.e. 2010 to the present), or since March 2009? The start of the bull market is often pegged as March 9, 2009.
Then there's the question of what "the stock market" means: S&P 500, S&P 1500, Wilshire 5000, MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI), .... For kicks, let's use the S&P 500. Growth of $10K (using M* charts) :
March 9, 2009 through March 23, 2018 VPMCX: $52,028 vs. S&P 500: $45,832
Jan 1, 2010 through March 23, 2018 VPMCX: $31,087 vs. S&P 500: $27,587
Though the lead question (regardless of starting date or market index implied) is not what the article is about. The article asks whether any fund landed in the top quartile every year since the bull market began. Again there's the question of whether this means calendar year or years ending each March 8th.
Then there's the question: top quartile of what? Peer funds (same category) or all broad-based domestic stock funds? But wait, it gets worse. While the article says that the universe studied was broad based domestic stock funds, it writes about two small cap energy funds that remained in the top quartile for five successive one year periods. Bzzt, wrong universe (of funds).
The bottom line is that, lousy writing and lousy analysis aside, it's starting with a lousy premise: that a good fund is one that lands in the top quartile year in, year out. That would rule out index funds.
VFINX (among large cap blend peers) ranked in the 54th percentile in 2009, 31st percentile in 2010, 38th percentile in 2012, 44th percentile in 2013, 29th percentile in 2016, 33rd percentile in 2017, and 29th percentile YTD. Since 2008, VFINX landed in the top quartile only 3 times (1/3).
Don't get ripped off by bogus metrics.
Edit: I was working on this as Catch posted other comments. Interesting that we both cited VPMCX. I was originally going to use FCNTX (another of Catch's funds), but while it outperformed the S&P 500 from 1/1/2010 on, it slightly underperformed since March 9, 2009. Still, a very good fund.
Comments
The writer does not indicate what benchmark is being used; so, I will presume the market common benchmark of the SP-500 is the reference.
I'll offer this chart of active managed funds of which this house has had money invested at one time or another. I'm sure there are other funds. These are just 3 with which I am familiar.
Chart time frame = March 6, 2009 - March 23, 2018, just about 9 exact. You be the judge of the info in the article. NOTE: chart wouldn't set today for time frame, but you'll be able to judge with your eyes from March, 2009.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,FCNTX,FDGRX,VPMCX&p=6&O=011000
IMHO, the article is quite weak as to offering any evidence.
Regards,
Catch
There's your first clue that the writer is statistically challenged. Is the question about outperformance since 2009 (i.e. 2010 to the present), or since March 2009? The start of the bull market is often pegged as March 9, 2009.
Then there's the question of what "the stock market" means: S&P 500, S&P 1500, Wilshire 5000, MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI), .... For kicks, let's use the S&P 500. Growth of $10K (using M* charts) :
March 9, 2009 through March 23, 2018
VPMCX: $52,028 vs. S&P 500: $45,832
Jan 1, 2010 through March 23, 2018
VPMCX: $31,087 vs. S&P 500: $27,587
Though the lead question (regardless of starting date or market index implied) is not what the article is about. The article asks whether any fund landed in the top quartile every year since the bull market began. Again there's the question of whether this means calendar year or years ending each March 8th.
Then there's the question: top quartile of what? Peer funds (same category) or all broad-based domestic stock funds? But wait, it gets worse. While the article says that the universe studied was broad based domestic stock funds, it writes about two small cap energy funds that remained in the top quartile for five successive one year periods. Bzzt, wrong universe (of funds).
The bottom line is that, lousy writing and lousy analysis aside, it's starting with a lousy premise: that a good fund is one that lands in the top quartile year in, year out. That would rule out index funds.
VFINX (among large cap blend peers) ranked in the 54th percentile in 2009, 31st percentile in 2010, 38th percentile in 2012, 44th percentile in 2013, 29th percentile in 2016, 33rd percentile in 2017, and 29th percentile YTD. Since 2008, VFINX landed in the top quartile only 3 times (1/3).
Don't get ripped off by bogus metrics.
Edit: I was working on this as Catch posted other comments. Interesting that we both cited VPMCX. I was originally going to use FCNTX (another of Catch's funds), but while it outperformed the S&P 500 from 1/1/2010 on, it slightly underperformed since March 9, 2009. Still, a very good fund.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/15/your-money/how-many-mutual-funds-routinely-rout-the-market-zero.html