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A few weeks ago on Consuelo Mack's program, Bob Doll said that there were only 2 possibilities: either this is it (meaning the bull market is ending......or......we have a melt up that carries the market much higher over the next 1 to 3 years.
Which of these seems more likely at this point? Or is there a third possibility?
For melt up: great economic fundamentals, Fed that appears moderate to dovish, an administration eager to cut whatever taxes / regulations business wants it to
For "this is it": high valuations in nearly every market, several common signs of a peak (e.g. a clearly insane mania, now bitcoin, 20 years ago pets.com etc; or bigtime fraud, now Theranon, then Enron), possible trade war, an executive branch that appears (to me) utterly incapable of handling any kind of crisis, and the chance that Mueller will find a smoking gun and political instability will result.
Hard to say what it'll be, but I've been slowly selling equities, bringing my allocation down to 65% from 80%.
Comments
For "this is it": high valuations in nearly every market, several common signs of a peak (e.g. a clearly insane mania, now bitcoin, 20 years ago pets.com etc; or bigtime fraud, now Theranon, then Enron), possible trade war, an executive branch that appears (to me) utterly incapable of handling any kind of crisis, and the chance that Mueller will find a smoking gun and political instability will result.
Hard to say what it'll be, but I've been slowly selling equities, bringing my allocation down to 65% from 80%.