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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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Trade wars and tariffs in today's global interconnect & other swans

catch22catch22
edited March 2018 in Fund Discussions
One doesn't need to watch the entire movie, "War Games", to hopefully understand my take and representation of the 4 minute sequence linked below. Tis another form of War Games that I imagine and consider while watching the video; where the military aspect is replaced by an economic aspect of War Games.
Perhaps you'll "see" what I see in terms of economic representations related to current tariff/trade threats and other..... Heck, even the super computer could be a representation of humans in powerful positions.

Lastly, are the gray and/or black swans nesting somewhere in the greater surrounding D.C. area???
Yes, this is posted in "funds category"; as appropriate, as this subject is affecting our investments.
Enjoy,
Catch

From the 1983 movie, War Games......4 minutes of your time.

Comments

  • Old_Skeet
    edited March 2018
    Hi @Catch22,

    The question that resonates with me ...

    Is the "Trump Bump" going to turn into the "Trump Thump?" Or, pehaps worse into the "Trump Dump?"

    I'm said to say, I hated to see Mrs. Yellen not get reappointed as the FOMC Chair; and, it also disappoints me to see Mr. Cohn resign. I'm thinking that these two people had great wisdom and a stabilizing effect and I am very said to see them go. Now, if McMaster leaves and Kelly follows ... Who's left? Tillerson & Ross

    Remember, stock market votatility started during Mrs. Yellen's last week on the job and continues with the"Trump Follies" that now seem to follow. Yes, I'm sure there are good people that can replace them; but, their leaving creates uncertainty. And, the markets hate uncertainty.

    I also agree that in the past our leaders and elected have given the store away in a number of foreign trade deals. But, do you upset the "Apple Cart" so to speak in revisiting these deals? After all, bruised apples have little value!

    There are indeed a lot of things that need corrective action that politics messed up through the years.
    Hopefully, these things can and will get worked out like rebuilding our steel industry without harming our neighboring trading partners, our long standing allies and even ourselves.

    Skeet
  • TedTed
    edited March 2018
    @Old_Skeet: Just like the announcement on steel tariffs, this to shall pass. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see the market in the green by the end of today. Unless you need your money in the next few week, sit tight and do nothing. I am confident the market will be up about 9% from here at year end. As you know investing is a marathon not a sprint.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • beebee
    edited March 2018
    Investing.com combines the S&P 500 Futures with "News of the Day"...hover over the "N" of the chart linked.

    https://investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures

    What's that saying? "Buy the Rumor...sell the News", but a lot of news these days is T"rumor"p. "Maybe short or sell the the T-"rumor"-p...forget the news".

    what-does-buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news-mean
  • Old_Skeet
    edited March 2018
    @Ted,

    Thanks for the reminder. Much appreciated.

    I have ample cash set aside for these rainy day blues.

    I believe I can weather the storm. If it gets bad enough I might even do some buying.

    Now would you rather bask in the sun? Or, set out a storm?

    Skeet
  • catch22catch22
    edited March 2018
    Hi @Old_Skeet
    This house, not unlike your's; "hearts" investing profits, but capital preservation is imperative.
    As interest rates continued to creep up in late 2017, and viewing reactions over a period of months found real estate to continue very weak into early 2018......all of our real estate was sold. Also took the money and run from broad Europe holdings.
    As the equity markets became more "insane" in January, sold away most of our technology and healthcare related.
    In mid-January our portfolio was about 80% equity and is currently at 38.5%. The majority of this remains in tech. and healthcare related.
    As bonds were still stuck in "suck land", what would have been a normal area for us to travel to with equity sells, all moved to plain cash.
    So, we took the money and ran. Below is where we are parked at this moment.

    EQUITY = 38.5%
    BONDS = 21.4%
    CASH = 40.3%

    Sidenote: small caps continue to attempt to become better performers, so far this year.

    Take care,
    Catch
  • Old_Skeet
    Folks, we are about to find out just how good Trump is at his skill to negociate.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/08/world/asia/us-trump-tpp-signed.html?rref=collection/sectioncollection/business&action=click&contentCollection=business&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront&mtrref=www.nytimes.com
  • davidrmorandavidrmoran
    reducing competitiveness, and acting as if steel and aluminum were 'final goods'

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/10/opinion/trumps-negative-protection-racket-wonkish.html
  • LewisBraham
    It's called brinkmanship. It could work in business--perhaps certain real estate deals--but in geopolitics it could lead to more than a trade war. It could lead to real war.
  • TedTed
    @Lewis & MFO Members: Donald and Kim are so immature, that the only "real war" is this board game that has been installed in their playpen.
    Regards,
    Ted:)
    https://www.google.com/search?q=Risk+game+image&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjhu_Su1eLZAhWstlkKHfh-AzQQ7AkIQg&biw=1200&bih=551
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