That comment came from JoeD in regard to the Art Cashin statement that
there was a 35% chance that we retest the recent lows.
Sure, nobody knows what’s going to happen next in the market.
But that doesn’t mean that we can’t have a little fun with it.
Let’s (just for giggles) take a shot at guessing the March S&P 500 closing price.
Not the actual price. That would certainly be a wild ass guess.
Let’s just guess if the closing price will be HIGHER or LOWER than Februarys close.
I know. Many of you will say something like, “I don’t care because
I’m a long-term investor.”
But this isn’t about what kind of investor you are (or claim to be).
This is just an opportunity to play the Art Cashin guessing game.
Who knows, you might be right. Heck, you’ve got a 50-50 chance.
If you’d really like to test your market skills, you could add
the percentage increase or decrease. But that’s for real Art Cashin lovers.
One request:
Please don’t bore us with your rational. There’s plenty of that
on the buy, sell, ponder thread.
Deadline for your guess is the Wednesday February 28th S&P 500 close.
Comments
Old_Skeet thinks the S&P 500 Index will be ... higher ... as of 2/22 close of 2704 with right to revise up until 2/28 contest close. Comment: If the FOMC stands pat this is a good call. If they raise ... well that creates some uncertainity. And, if infation remains low they just might not raise. After all, Powell was appointed by Trump. I also think that Powell does not wish to derail the economy nor the markets.
In addition, I think stocks as measured by the S&P 500 Index will be higher at year end. I'm thinking somewhere around the 2,950 range should forward earnings estimates materialize as projected and the FOMC raises no more than three times (quarter of point increases).
Currently, I favor stocks over bonds; and, with this, I have reduced my exposure to bonds.
Have a great day ... and, I wish all good investing.
" I'll play, although picking market direction short term can be a challenge."
Yeah, but who doesn't like a small challenge?
Especially when there's nothing to lose.
I also guess that March S&P 500 will close HIGHER.
Back in the mid 2000s, I was on a chat board filled with stock traders.
Each January we would guess the S&P 500 price for the end of the year.
Closest to the actual number was the winner... no prizes, just congratulations.
Disclosure: There were usually around 40 traders who participated and
I was the winner five years running. I chalked it up to luck.
Have a great day and be kind to others.
Regards
Just a word of warning – I’ve heard that there are some
defective crystal balls out there that were manufactured in China.
These balls emit radiation that may cause brain cancer.
Please check your crystal ball for the country of origin and
its expiration date.
What say you?
Expect fair winds and a following sea until around March 12-14 (sorry I can’t be more precise). Beware the Ides of March. Shortly after the 15th, threatening clouds begin to gather on the horizon as increasingly fierce winds turn towards the bow. Seas soon become unnavigable. Seasoned veterans seek safe harbor in cash and higher rated bonds. Those remaining adrift quickly lower their main sheets - adding to the pummeling. A classic case of more sellers than buyers. Roughest weather will occur during the week beginning March 19, persisting for only 2-3 days. But that’s long enough to rattle the nerves of even the saltiest of helmsmen. Clouds lift and relative calm returns beginning around March 26. S&P ends March lower than at the end of February.
I surely do not own a crystal ball, and if I did, I'm certain it would be broken. Forecasting anything is always hazardous duty.
So rather then guessing, I'll default to the statistics. There's a mountain of stats for the marketplace. Here is a Link to just one such reference:
https://cognitiveinvesting.com/2012/01/17/how-much-fluctuation-should-i-expect-of-the-stock-market/
Based on these data, my guess is a 62% likelihood of an "up" equity market. But it really doesn't matter to me since I'm a committed long term investot, and practice what I preach.
Best Wishes
Regards,
Ted
"The Linkster guarantee's a 100% chance"
>>>choose your favorite synonym from the below list and be happy, eh?
The word chance, as likely understood by most English speaking:
chance
noun
1.
a possibility of something happening.
"a chance of victory"
synonyms: possibility, prospect, probability, likelihood, likeliness, expectation, anticipation
2.
the occurrence and development of events in the absence of any obvious design.
"he met his brother by chance"
synonyms: accident, coincidence, serendipity, fate, destiny, fortuity, providence, happenstance;
"The Linkster guarantee's a 100% chance the S&P 500 will close above 3,000 from it's present level of 2747. That would be a 9% + gain !"
Should I assume that you mean by the end of the year?
Or are you going balls to the wall and suggesting by the end of March?
I understand that you are not interested in this little (should I say: meaningless) game… but thanks for posting.
I’ll put you down for HIGHER IN THE LONG RUN (as a statistical default).
Thanks for the Barometric Reading. Your LOWER guess/reading is recorded.
Keep your sails dry - or whatever floats your boat.
Thanks for your short/direct guess.
Regards,
Ted
This scenario would, however, make for some fun TRADING opps.
It's a great number because if it doesn't happen, nobody can claim that you said it would. If it does happen, you can claim that you definitely predicted the possibility.
In that spirit, I hereby predict that there's a 40% chance that the close will be higher; I further predict that there's a 40% chance that the close will be lower.
(I hope @Flack is checking up on guys like you.)
or lower than the February close.
Looks like Feb. closed at 2713.83.
HIGHER
Old Skeet
Bud
Ted
Flack
MJG (“in the long term”)
LOWER
Hank
jlev
And then there’s Old Joe… ever the hedge bettor…
who didn’t get OLD by taking risks.
Everyone relax… guessing incorrectly will not be on your permanent record.