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In this Discussion

  • Mark February 2018
  • MJG February 2018
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Tom Madell: Should You React The Stock Market's Ups And Downs?

TedTed
edited February 2018 in Fund Discussions
FYI: I find it unfortunate, but completely wired into our brain circuitry, that we over rely on often very short-term data in forming our judgments about our investments and when deciding whether we might need to adjust our portfolios. Although it is hard to realize it at the time, this almost always leads to doing exactly the opposite of the right thing if we wish to maximize our returns, or even to come out ahead at all. This may appear to be a very strong statement but is true nonetheless. And it helps account for why so many investors lost so much money in the 2007-2009 market crash.
Regards,
Ted
http://funds-newsletter.com/feb-mar18-newsletter/mar18.htm

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Comments

  • Hi Guys,

    As Seth Kllarman is often quoted as saying "The stock market is the story of cycles and of the human behavior that is responsible for overreactions in both directions."

    We all have a strong tendency to overreact. As Damon Runyon remarked: "The race is not always to the swift or the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet".

    So my answer to market gyrations is largely to ignore them. Far to many false signals. I do nothing short term. I stay the course and anticiate a 10% long term annual equity market return. I have both the patience and financial strength to do so. I invest with money that I definitely do not need in even the moderately long term. That's a position of strength that works to ease my decision making in the marketplace.

    Best Wishes
  • I agree MJG, and I also have to wonder how much of those record inflows had to do with year end bonuses, tax repatriation bonuses and beginning of the year IRA contributions along with the 'fear of missing out' contributions. Likewise withdrawals might have been in reaction to an uh-oh lets rethink this situation. Who knows. I sure don't.
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