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Dow has given up half of 2017 gains already in 2018 ??
Without looking I would say that is fake news and not remotely accurate.
Edit. OK I checked since it seemed so far fetched. The Dow would have to be down double digits YTD to have given back half of 2017 gains. The Dow is most definitely not down double digits in 2018.
I did more digging. Hope these numbers are accurate. (It’s late at night.)
DJI:
Close for 2016: 19,719
Close for 2017: 24,719
Close on Feb. 8: 23,860
2017 Gain (in points): + 4,967
2018 Loss (to date): - 859
What I’m thinking is perhaps the losses over the past week might be about half of the 2017 gain. Might be what CNBC-W meant. Looks like Dow peaked at/near 26,000 in late January, That would put the drop over the past week at around 2,140 points. That’s equal to about 43% of its total 2017 point gain (but less in percentage terms). That’s still a striking number for such a short period.
I think this is not total (reinvested growth, yes? That is a little different, so far as I can see. It's the only way to calculate these things, to my mind. If my math reading is right, DIA (etf) growth of $10k for last year was just under 28%, as opposed to the 25+% unreinvested.
I have the S&P 500 Index now in retractment back to October and November 2017 weekly closings of Oct 27th 2581 ... November 3rd 2588 ... November 10th 2582 ... and, November 13th 2579. To get to 2450 range on the S&P 500 Index (a 15% decline) would be a retractment back to July and August weekly closings of July 14th 2459 ... August 11th 2441 ... and, August 26th 2443.
Ah...math, numbers, yada-yada K. I grabbed a few common "hot" areas for the reference in the below chart: SPY , of course, for broad market. FDGRX , for large growth, the then on-going large cap growth sector. FHLC for healthcare, although this sector has a variety of funds types in different health areas. FTEC is a proxy for the "hot" tech. sectors for the past 12 or so months. So, here is the overview; plus or minus a day or two. Note: this chart contains all distributions for total return view. If one placed all of their money into a mix of or any of these areas; the following is the break even point, through the Feb. 8 close. Any money in the below funds prior to the date periods shown next is still yours for a profit. View a line graph on the far right of the chart, then view to the left to find the matching point. Hover the cursor/pointer anywhere on the graph lines to find a date and value.
--- SPY = late Nov. - early Dec., 2017 --- FHLC = same as above --- FTEC = same as above --- FDGRX = same as above
NOTE: this is an active chart. Backspace to clear the existing tickers and insert your own; and "whack" the GO icon. The chart will load your selected ticker for a 200 day period (default). To save your chart or this one.....just below the chart find a "permalink" choice, select this and the "url" for the chart will display. Right click to copy (or press) for the non-pc users; and then save the "url" to where ever for future use. You may also right click upon the 200 day bar to change to other default time ranges.
Have fun. I have snow to redistribute in the next hour or so, and through the day. I presume the quick and dirty with this is accurate........please discover and offer a "boo-boo" I may have overlooked or noted in error (too early in the day). Take care, Catch
Just re-checking SPY chart since the 'Trump Bump" (Nov 2016- Feb 2018). Seems that SPY is hitting its 1.5 year resistance line (drawn arrow). It will be interesting to watch the market's buying interest from this point.
A difficulty in verifying the report is we're not sure exactly what was said.
For example, "For the year [2017], the S&P gained 19.4%." (Marketwatch). That's obviously not including dividends; M* reports S&P returned 21.83% (and VFINX 21.67%) for 2017.
We know that the DJIA and S&P 500 have each dropped over 10% from their peak (i.e. both are said to be in "corrections"). So for the S&P 500 at least, one could say that in dropping 10% it has given back over half its gain (19.4%) of 2017.
@bee, I think your time span is too short and if influenced by what you call the Trump bump, not representative. I would think a "bump" would be considered an anomaly within a wider range. Anyway, if you go back to the start of the bull in 2009 and draw your line you could say the resistance line may be closer to SPY 235. Maybe another -8% drop from where we sit now. Anybodies guess though.
edit: actually eyeballing the line, maybe the resistance line is closer to SPY 225 (?) That's equates to another -12% drop.
Comments
Edit. OK I checked since it seemed so far fetched. The Dow would have to be down double digits YTD to have given back half of 2017 gains. The Dow is most definitely not down double digits in 2018.
SP500 went from $10k 1/1/17 to just under $11,780 today.
It had hit $12,183 as of end of last year.
So, lemme see, carry the 2, and no, not the case for SP500.
Yet.
Another 700pt drop will do it, though.
Maybe tomorrow
Time to buy, he said, again.
I did more digging. Hope these numbers are accurate. (It’s late at night.)
DJI:
Close for 2016: 19,719
Close for 2017: 24,719
Close on Feb. 8: 23,860
2017 Gain (in points): + 4,967
2018 Loss (to date): - 859
What I’m thinking is perhaps the losses over the past week might be about half of the 2017 gain. Might be what CNBC-W meant. Looks like Dow peaked at/near 26,000 in late January, That would put the drop over the past week at around 2,140 points. That’s equal to about 43% of its total 2017 point gain (but less in percentage terms). That’s still a striking number for such a short period.
K.
I grabbed a few common "hot" areas for the reference in the below chart:
SPY , of course, for broad market. FDGRX , for large growth, the then on-going large cap growth sector. FHLC for healthcare, although this sector has a variety of funds types in different health areas. FTEC is a proxy for the "hot" tech. sectors for the past 12 or so months.
So, here is the overview; plus or minus a day or two. Note: this chart contains all distributions for total return view. If one placed all of their money into a mix of or any of these areas; the following is the break even point, through the Feb. 8 close.
Any money in the below funds prior to the date periods shown next is still yours for a profit. View a line graph on the far right of the chart, then view to the left to find the matching point. Hover the cursor/pointer anywhere on the graph lines to find a date and value.
--- SPY = late Nov. - early Dec., 2017
--- FHLC = same as above
--- FTEC = same as above
--- FDGRX = same as above
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,FDGRX,FHLC,FTEC&n=200&O=011000
NOTE: this is an active chart. Backspace to clear the existing tickers and insert your own; and "whack" the GO icon. The chart will load your selected ticker for a 200 day period (default). To save your chart or this one.....just below the chart find a "permalink" choice, select this and the "url" for the chart will display. Right click to copy (or press) for the non-pc users; and then save the "url" to where ever for future use. You may also right click upon the 200 day bar to change to other default time ranges.
Have fun. I have snow to redistribute in the next hour or so, and through the day.
I presume the quick and dirty with this is accurate........please discover and offer a "boo-boo" I may have overlooked or noted in error (too early in the day).
Take care,
Catch
For example, "For the year [2017], the S&P gained 19.4%." (Marketwatch). That's obviously not including dividends; M* reports S&P returned 21.83% (and VFINX 21.67%) for 2017.
We know that the DJIA and S&P 500 have each dropped over 10% from their peak (i.e. both are said to be in "corrections"). So for the S&P 500 at least, one could say that in dropping 10% it has given back over half its gain (19.4%) of 2017.
What do they say about statistics?
edit: actually eyeballing the line, maybe the resistance line is closer to SPY 225 (?) That's equates to another -12% drop.
Your right. I'm going to turn back to the tried-and-true magic 8-ball. Come on Mr. JoJo, just fun and games here.
By the way, every time I see your username I want to start singing the Beatles song, JoJo was a man who thought he was a....