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"...most methodologies leave little room for a discussion of true outliers and true surprises. I wrote this list, “2018: Ten Surprises for Japan,” to address this deficiency. Here are the outlier scenarios that I worry about for Japan investment implications. By definition, these 10 surprises lie outside the consensus. Their primary purpose is to make the reader think. Improbable as they may appear, any movement toward their far-out direction could cause an about-face in market consensus."
