FYI: Below, is a look at consensus year-end price targets for the S&P 500 for every year going back to 2000. For each year, we show where Wall Street strategists saw the S&P 500 trading at the end of the year, the estimated annual percentage change based on the price target, and the actual percentage change that the S&P 500 experienced that year.
Typically strategists project a gain of 9.3% for the S&P 500. That’s not surprising given that the S&P has historically averaged an annual gain of about that amount. In 2016, Wall Street strategists were spot on with their year-end target, missing the actual mark by just 1.1 percentage points. In 2017, however, strategists severely underestimated things. While they were looking for a gain of 5.5% this year, they undershot the actual mark by roughly 14 percentage points.
Underestimating is something strategists have done for most of this bull market. In the 9 years since 2009, strategists underestimated the actual move 7 times.
Also, notice that since 2000 there hasn’t been a year where the consensus year-end price target was negative.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/2018-wall-street-strategists-year-end-price-targets/
