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You noted: "Probally, small will lead large as we enter 2018 up towards spring. Then large will lead small through the summer and into fall. Come fall small will again become the leader."
And the reasoning behind this scenario?
The above comment that you reference is a "tea leaf" prediction.
Currently ... as I write and as we close out the year ... IWM has now taken the lead over MDY & SPY for the past rolling week in Old_Skeet's market compass. Year-to-date the best performing asset class within the compass is EEM which is comprised mostly of large caps and it now trails IWM, MDY & SPY for the past three months.
So ... Is it large over small? Domestic over foreign?
Why would you not want to own some of each?