FYI: It is that time of year, when the financial industry engages in its annual ritual of making forecasts, which is usually little more than the prelude to looking foolish. Titles like “Outlook for 2018, “What to expect in the new year,” or some variation thereof litter the landscape. Over the years, it has been my distinct privilege (and truth be told, pleasure) to point out how silly this process is.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-15/wall-street-wises-up-to-the-folly-of-forecasting
Comments
Forecasting is a fool's game. "..... "economists had failed to predict 148 of the past 150 recessions."
I extracted that striking statistic from a recent article in The Guardian. Here is the reference:
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/sep/02/economic-forecasting-flawed-science-data
So called expert political and economic judgment simply does not exist. In general, the expert's batting average is dismal.
Yet we often seek it. That doesn't speak well of our judgment criteria. These experts are often called Hedgehogs because of their depth of knowledge in a limited, semi-technical area. That considerable depth of knowledge does not necessarily translate into a more formidable prediction record. Your guesstimate is as good as mine, which is as good as that from any Expert.
Best wishes and although it is not an easy assignment, please stay the course.
wsj.com/video/barry-ritholtz-outlook-for-2012/D57E6C7E-67C9-43A6-8C28-CEE5CCDAD340.html