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RiverNorth Doubleline Strategic Inc I RNSIX Upward
Shareholder since April Fools 2011. This is getting too good to be true. Hot hands have been known and shown to grow cold, a Heebner or Bill Miller for example. Reversion to mean from a long run at the top requires a similar run at the bottom. More has been lost chasing yield than probably any and all frauds and scams combined, Madoff for example or the entire highly rated toxic credit debacle. When LTCM enjoyed a stellar performance besides attracting assets they attracted attention. Others wished to know how they were vacuuming up nickels from around the world, what instruments in which markets employing what strategies then reverse engineering them, crowding out the profit opportunities.
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NEW YORK, July 27 (IFR) - The ongoing hunt for yield in a low-rate environment has renewed investor interest in battered non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), with secondary-trading volumes more than doubling in recent weeks.
The distressed bonds have rallied this entire year, but recent suggestions that the US housing market might have reached a bottom sent real money accounts, such as pension funds and insurance companies, into the sector, analysts said, while fast money, or hedge fund accounts, joined in as soon as they saw the positive movements in price.
The distressed bonds have rallied this entire year, but recent suggestions that the US housing market might have reached a bottom sent real money accounts, such as pension funds and insurance companies, into the sector, analysts said, while fast money, or hedge fund accounts, joined in as soon as they saw the positive movements in price.
"There's a lot of action and activity that I'm seeing this week," said a hedge fund money manager on Friday. "I've been in this business over 20 years, so I've seen a lot of trading, but I haven't seen non-agency RMBS trade this well in a long time. This will be a long-term phenomenon."
CHASING YIELD
The bonds offered double-digit yields earlier in the year, but now offer approximately 5% to 9%.
Still, in such a low interest rate environment, such returns are attractive.
"More and more new investors are coming into the market who are now okay with the risks involved to achieve a 5% or 6% yield," said John Sim, the head of MBS research at JP Morgan.
"There's a new batch of investors that are coming in at a new yield target. And on the fast money side, hedge funds sense the price momentum, and figure they will take their price gains now. Many have started selling."
Price returns in weaker-credit RMBS such as subprime are up 15-20% on the year, Sim said.
On such fund is Doubleline Total Return Bond (DBLTX). It is one of the best-performing bond funds and one of the fastest growing, according to a recent Wall Street Journal article. Manager Jeff Gundlach is among the foremost fixed-income practitioners. At his prior employer, TCW Group, he also had a stellar record. His success comes from a unique strategy: His savvy purchases of non-agency RMBS, which tend to be more risky than most, are blended with risk-free assets, U.S. government securities. As economic conditions change, he adjusts this mixture between the two classes.
Long-Term Capital Management, the hedge fund founded by John Meriwether in 1994, used computers to detect very small and fleeting differentials in securities prices to make huge profits in global bond and derivatives markets in the late ’90s. Their profits were fleeting, too, though. Their computer trading algorithms were soon imitated by others, which required LTCM to seek out new methodologies and markets. Soon, such risk taking led to the fund’s downfall. In 1998, the New York Federal Reserve had to orchestrate a bailout.
Continuing to hold rnsix, 20% of assets, but I don't expect the outsized contribution of outsized gains from the run in the private label residential mortgage sector to be repeated.
Comments
Hot hands have been known and shown to grow cold, a Heebner or
Bill Miller for example. Reversion to mean from a long run at the top
requires a similar run at the bottom. More has been lost chasing yield
than probably any and all frauds and scams combined, Madoff for example
or the entire highly rated toxic credit debacle. When LTCM enjoyed a stellar
performance besides attracting assets they attracted attention. Others wished
to know how they were vacuuming up nickels from around the world, what instruments
in which markets employing what strategies then reverse engineering them, crowding
out the profit opportunities.
~~~~~~~~~~
NEW YORK, July 27 (IFR) - The ongoing hunt for yield in a low-rate environment has renewed investor interest in battered non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), with secondary-trading volumes more than doubling in recent weeks.
The distressed bonds have rallied this entire year, but recent suggestions that the US housing market might have reached a bottom sent real money accounts, such as pension funds and insurance companies, into the sector, analysts said, while fast money, or hedge fund accounts, joined in as soon as they saw the positive movements in price.
The distressed bonds have rallied this entire year, but recent suggestions that the US housing market might have reached a bottom sent real money accounts, such as pension funds and insurance companies, into the sector, analysts said, while fast money, or hedge fund accounts, joined in as soon as they saw the positive movements in price.
"There's a lot of action and activity that I'm seeing this week," said a hedge fund money manager on Friday. "I've been in this business over 20 years, so I've seen a lot of trading, but I haven't seen non-agency RMBS trade this well in a long time. This will be a long-term phenomenon."
CHASING YIELD
The bonds offered double-digit yields earlier in the year, but now offer approximately 5% to 9%.
Still, in such a low interest rate environment, such returns are attractive.
"More and more new investors are coming into the market who are now okay with the risks involved to achieve a 5% or 6% yield," said John Sim, the head of MBS research at JP Morgan.
"There's a new batch of investors that are coming in at a new yield target. And on the fast money side, hedge funds sense the price momentum, and figure they will take their price gains now. Many have started selling."
Price returns in weaker-credit RMBS such as subprime are up 15-20% on the year, Sim said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/27/markets-credit-idUSL2E8IR9BA20120727
On such fund is Doubleline Total Return Bond (DBLTX). It is one of the best-performing bond funds and one of the fastest growing, according to a recent Wall Street Journal article. Manager Jeff Gundlach is among the foremost fixed-income practitioners. At his prior employer, TCW Group, he also had a stellar record. His success comes from a unique strategy: His savvy purchases of non-agency RMBS, which tend to be more risky than most, are blended with risk-free assets, U.S. government securities. As economic conditions change, he adjusts this mixture between the two classes.
http://news.morningstar.com/articles/perspectives/144355/buying-mortgage-bonds.aspx?CustId=&CLogin=&CType=&CName=&_LPAGE=/FORBIDDEN/CONTENTARCHIVED.HTML&_BPA=N
Long-Term Capital Management, the hedge fund founded by John Meriwether in 1994, used computers to detect very small and fleeting differentials in securities prices to make huge profits in global bond and derivatives markets in the late ’90s. Their profits were fleeting, too, though. Their computer trading algorithms were soon imitated by others, which required LTCM to seek out new methodologies and markets. Soon, such risk taking led to the fund’s downfall. In 1998, the New York Federal Reserve had to orchestrate a bailout.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-08/history-of-algorithmic-trading-shows-promise-and-perils.html
Continuing to hold rnsix, 20% of assets, but I don't expect the outsized contribution of outsized gains from the
run in the private label residential mortgage sector to be repeated.