Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Support MFO
Donate through PayPal
Curious if all the Sell-In-May proponents have re-entered the markets yet?
Very slightly hedged and the hedges are not exactly faring well, but much more long than short and feel comfortable with positioning at this point. I think a lot of whats going on is based largely around more and more promises of QE (see again this morning with new discussion of "open ended" QE.) I don't think the Fed will do QE3 into a ramping equity market, but I'd be amused to see it happen. Eventually the market will tank again when it becomes clear - at least I think - QE is more likely 15-20% lower.
I didn't sell in May, although I think that's partly due to long-term views on things like Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP) and some funds that are rather unique (there's nothing exactly like Marketfield in terms of a long-short macro view fund.) Or things that are dividend plays that I don't plan on selling and will collect the dividends - (such as BIP, again)
Sold a bunch of stocks in April to avoid the May rush. Trying to look for some sort of a bottom before easing back in........... Mutual funds are a work in progress doing rebalance and looking for less volity in the same themes. Like watching paint dry.
Here is what I have done … What I have been doing … And, what I plan to do.
From review, I sold some of my equity ballast off from the later part of March on into April. At the time my equity allocation had grown to about 68% of my portfolio which was about 8% above my max equity allocation to equities of 60% as defined by my tolerance for risk. The normal equity allocation range for me is 40% to 60% based upon a risk assesment recently done by my broker. You can see, I was plus 8% overweight my max equity allocation range. What the heck, it was a short term investment position.
When the markets pulled back, I became a select buyer in equities back of 1340. Why 1340? Well, 1340 is about the mid point of the year-to-date high (1422) & low (1258) for the S&P 500 Index.
My equity ballast buys back of 1340, that I made earlier in the summer, have now appreciated to where I am thinking of booking profit; and, selling down equities into this rally because I feel stocks will be pulling back in the near term.
I believe the market has been moved upward by talk … And, when it is discovered the talk was cheap … Go figure, it will be begin pulling back in a couple of weeks, or so, from my thoughts.
I would not be chasing stocks at their current valuation as they are closing in on the year to date high. If you are not yet positioned … I’d wait for stocks to come to you … Don’t go chasing them for I feel one would be buying towards the top … and, folks that is where you want to be selling.
Hi Skeeter... right on. Took significant profits in March/April, been watching carefully since. Have made some tactical purchases (RPHYX, PONDX) in areas not terribly affected by equity run-up. Agree that talk has propelled market upwards- think that we will see some drastic downdraft as Euro situation plays out- that may be a decent time to increase equity positions.
Thanks for the thoughtful responses. In hindsight, a dumb question based on my lack of understanding. I've checked definition and linked one. Actually, if a strict proponent of "Sell in May" one would be still be out of market based on seasonal trends. Check the linked definition - but believe until November. Sounds like many lightened up in the spring after a nice run. Think I did as well to a lesser extent ...
Really wanted to say - I viewed all this stuff more as an academic game when younger - you know, watching cnbc and tracking your numbers on a spread sheet. Allocating this & that. But, something profound happened when I pulled that first distribution out few years into retirement. Like - holy cow - all this "mumbo-jumbo" on paper represents real spending power and real goods and services I can actually get my grimey paws on & put to use! Viewed that way, one's perspective on how much risk to assume with the remaining funds during retirement likely changes somewhat.
I have not done the math but believe that at this point in time if you were smart enough to sell May 1 but not smart enough to have purchased since then you would be about break even but your blood preassure and/or ulcer would be healthier.
Comments
I didn't sell in May, although I think that's partly due to long-term views on things like Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP) and some funds that are rather unique (there's nothing exactly like Marketfield in terms of a long-short macro view fund.) Or things that are dividend plays that I don't plan on selling and will collect the dividends - (such as BIP, again)
Me too
This time I'm more skilled in the art of pushing the sell button. So, let them drive this market higher.
Here is what I have done … What I have been doing … And, what I plan to do.
From review, I sold some of my equity ballast off from the later part of March on into April. At the time my equity allocation had grown to about 68% of my portfolio which was about 8% above my max equity allocation to equities of 60% as defined by my tolerance for risk. The normal equity allocation range for me is 40% to 60% based upon a risk assesment recently done by my broker. You can see, I was plus 8% overweight my max equity allocation range. What the heck, it was a short term investment position.
When the markets pulled back, I became a select buyer in equities back of 1340. Why 1340? Well, 1340 is about the mid point of the year-to-date high (1422) & low (1258) for the S&P 500 Index.
My equity ballast buys back of 1340, that I made earlier in the summer, have now appreciated to where I am thinking of booking profit; and, selling down equities into this rally because I feel stocks will be pulling back in the near term.
I believe the market has been moved upward by talk … And, when it is discovered the talk was cheap … Go figure, it will be begin pulling back in a couple of weeks, or so, from my thoughts.
I would not be chasing stocks at their current valuation as they are closing in on the year to date high. If you are not yet positioned … I’d wait for stocks to come to you … Don’t go chasing them for I feel one would be buying towards the top … and, folks that is where you want to be selling.
Good Investing,
Skeeter
Regards-OJ
Thanks for the thoughtful responses. In hindsight, a dumb question based on my lack of understanding. I've checked definition and linked one. Actually, if a strict proponent of "Sell in May" one would be still be out of market based on seasonal trends. Check the linked definition - but believe until November. Sounds like many lightened up in the spring after a nice run. Think I did as well to a lesser extent ...
Really wanted to say - I viewed all this stuff more as an academic game when younger - you know, watching cnbc and tracking your numbers on a spread sheet. Allocating this & that. But, something profound happened when I pulled that first distribution out few years into retirement. Like - holy cow - all this "mumbo-jumbo" on paper represents real spending power and real goods and services I can actually get my grimey paws on & put to use! Viewed that way, one's perspective on how much risk to assume with the remaining funds during retirement likely changes somewhat.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sell-in-may-and-go-away.asp#axzz22uMf4b7R