FYI: As the 2018 market outlooks begin to flood my inbox I’m reminded of one of the best books written on the topic of expert forecasting abilities — Expert Political Judgment by Philip Tetlock.
Tetlock released the first version of this book in 2006 but re-released an updated version this past summer. In the foreword, he said he was surprised by the success of the book when it first came out but it makes sense when combined with the sheer number of experts who have been made to look silly over the past 10+ years or so.
Regards,
Ted
