FYI: There are no easy answers in the financial markets right now because of the run-up we’ve experienced over the past number of years. The alternative — lower valuations, higher yields, more bargains, etc. — is, however, worse because that would mean everyone would have less money in their portfolios. We have to play the hand we’re dealt and anyone who tells you with certainty they know how things will work out from here is nuts. Legendary investor Howard Marks gave investors 6 options in an update this summer. In a piece I wrote for Bloomberg, I give the pros and cons of the best options.
Regards,
Ted
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/11/caution-alone-is-not-an-investment-strategy/
Comments
Diversification is easy to say, simple to do, but tends to sacrifice returns for reduced volatility. If you change your diversification category allocations dependent on perceived economic and/or market conditions that is a thinly disguised form of timing. It is a doable strategy but does require insights to be successful that escape most investors, and that includes professionals.
Class correlations do change as a function of time, but are just as hard to project as selecting winning stocks. It's never easy and simple. The Portfolio Visualizer site provides class returns and correlation data for various input timeframes. Here is the Link to that useful data source:
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-class-correlations
Good luck and good timing if you deploy this strategy for your own portfolio.
Best Wishes
I think I may have caught this disease !
Derf
It is for sure some will have greater success at positioning than others. I have found it best for me to allocate even within the growth area of my portfolio where no sleeve is less than 20% nor greater than 30%. In this way, I don't put too much, or to less, into a sleeve. Thus far it has worked well. Last year my small/mid cap sleeve lead. This year it trails with the other three sleeves (large mid cap, global growth and specialty/theme) being the producers. And, even the small/mid cap sleeve has produced year-to-date (at just short of 7%); but, just not as much as the others.
We each have our style of investing. For me, I am for the most part an asset allocator who plays around the edges and moves some money from time-to-time based upon my read into what I perceive will be the faster moving currents within the market.
But, to do this I have to continue to be a good student following the markets as they are forever changing. And, that is why I maintain both a domestic and global market compass as well as my market barometer that follows and scores certain aspects the S&P 500 Index and scales it into a barometer reading.
Many years ago I enjoyed some weekend visits to the dog track betting the dogs. One of my strategies was to bet three dogs to win, place or show as it produced more winning proceeds for me over betting one dog to win. So, I modified this betting strategy and incorporated it into my investment portfolio.
For me, it has worked well. Both, at the track and within my portfolio.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
Derf
Regards,
Ted
http://www.igaracing.com/
Derf
Thanks for the question.
The below link will explain win, place, show betting. And, yes most of my bets were $2.00 to win, $2.00 to show & $2,00 to place on three dogs per race. This way I had nine possiblities to collect. Naturally winnings were paid out based on betting odds and a good number of times if I just had a dog to place that covered the bets plus a little to the pocket. Most times I'd leave the track with jingle in my pocket.
My system is simple ... Bet the three fastest dogs based upon their average lap times if they were running in lanes 2 through 7. If a fast dog was running in other lanes, I passed on betting this dog. I found the dog running in lane 1 often times got pushed into the rail as the dogs formed into a running pack. In addition, I kept some stastics on which lanes were in the money more so than the others.
Generally, I only bet the first eight races. After that it got tougher to pick in the money dogs.
http://turfnsport.com/win-place-show-wagering/
Skeet
Good investing & racing to all,
Derf