Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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Don't know if baseball's allowed on the board ... Indians' streak ends at 22
"A day after the Indians rallied in the ninth inning en route to a 10th-inning walk-off win over the Royals to keep the streak alive, they were unable to come up with another great escape, and baseball's longest win streak in more than a century ended." http://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1354398-20170916.htm
@hank: "Don't know if baseball's allowed on the board)" Are you kidding me hank, we are coming to the point on the MFO Discussion Board where anything goes. As a rabid baseball fan, I rather read about the Indians than the most over-hyped story involving Equifax ! Regards, Ted 1948 Cleveland Indians: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CLE/1948.shtml
I don't know much about baseball, but not knowing much about a topic has never dampened my desire to contribute if probabilities can be defined. And in baseball, statistics dominate and permit respectable probability estimates.
Among professional major league teams these days, most events are near a coin toss in terms of a winning likelihood. The very best teams usually win a little over 60 to 65 percent of the time. Cleveland is within that winning percentage at this moment.
Let's assume that the Indians have a 65% chance of winning each of the next 4 games. The likelihood of them accomplishing that task is 0.65 taken 4 times or 0.1785.
The odds suggest that the Indian team has an 18% chance of accomplishing that challenge. If they have a 70% winning likelihood in each of these games because of perhaps motivational factors, the odds shift to a 24% overall chance of a record performance.
These odds are not overwhelming, but they still suggest that the consecutive win record will not be broken. Betting otherwise is risky business.
Emotions aside, the odds are the odds. Whether we acknowledge it or not, each day we do daily things subconsciously judging the odds and acting accordingly, like just crossing or not crossing the street successfully. Indeed, the odds are the odds, but nothing more.
Strange things do happen, and the odds are broken. Think about the US ice hockey victory over the great Russian team in the 1980 Olympic games. The Russians took over twice the number of goal shots than did the US team. The outcome doesn't reflect that whatsoever. As the announcer at that event, Al Miichaels' asked "Do you believe in Miracles?" Miracles do happen, and the odds against that 1980 miracle were far greater than the current Cleveland Indian odds. Good luck to them.
You're a hard man Maurice. Most everyone loves baseball and has some opinion on it, although not always positive. That mirrors investing in that aspect.
" ...... at the end of the day we can feel more than a little justified about America’s obsession with sports. “Just a game”? Far from it. Who knew that when you took your kid out to the ballgame, you were doing your country so much good? "
That quote was extracted from a comprehensive article by Gwen Burrow. It explored the impact of sports on the USA economy considering both secondary and tertiary effects. Here is the Link to that article:
Sports might not be a significant fraction of our GDP, but it does impact many folks in many ways. Note that the reference was posted under the Off Topic section of MFO. An argument can be made that it is a relevant discussion point even in an economic journal.
Besides, it is simply a fun topic.
I'll be watching a Dodger ballgame today, and I will enjoy it as much as I enjoyed the Dodger final game at Ebbits Field in 1957, and the Giants closing game at the Polo Grounds that same year. The fans packed Ebbits Field for that final contest, but mostly were absent at the Polo Grounds. Both ball clubs made excellent decisions for different reasons. I was doing graduate school work at Columbia University in '57 and really did see both closings. Lucky me.
Thank you for your informative reply post. Player salaries have certainly escalated. The equity market might be currently overvalued, but not as much as the major league current pay standards. But, what do I know? Not much in that field since that's what their market is prepared and does pay them. They know what they are doing.
I guess the owners recover some of that, and likely more, with what seems like extravagant ticket pricing. My initial reaction is that price gouging is the rule of the road at Fenway Park. By way of comparison, the minimum ticket at the Dodger ballpark costs 11 dollars. Reasonable seat locations can be had for under 20 dollars. Typically the Dodgers do not have sellout crowds, so these lower priced tickets are often available at game time. Of course, some exceptions do exist.
I haven't been to a game in about two years. My interest level is definity waning. Aging is a major factor. Also, the TV coverage is excellent. Club owners have made their choices relative to that coverage. Again, they are probably maximizing their profits.
@Maurice- don't know about you, but any article or comment which includes either the phrase "at the end of the day" or the word "stakeholders" is automatically disregarded in its entirety.
Tigers' Ausmus says Romine will play all 9 positions in season finale
Cellar dwelling Tigers have lost 9 in a row. They've traded away Justin Verlander and several top line players this year. And they've already announced that manager Brad Ausmus won't be returning after the season ends. (Dead man walking?)
Comments
Regards,
Ted
1948 Cleveland Indians:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CLE/1948.shtml
I don't know much about baseball, but not knowing much about a topic has never dampened my desire to contribute if probabilities can be defined. And in baseball, statistics dominate and permit respectable probability estimates.
Among professional major league teams these days, most events are near a coin toss in terms of a winning likelihood. The very best teams usually win a little over 60 to 65 percent of the time. Cleveland is within that winning percentage at this moment.
Let's assume that the Indians have a 65% chance of winning each of the next 4 games. The likelihood of them accomplishing that task is 0.65 taken 4 times or 0.1785.
The odds suggest that the Indian team has an 18% chance of accomplishing that challenge. If they have a 70% winning likelihood in each of these games because of perhaps motivational factors, the odds shift to a 24% overall chance of a record performance.
These odds are not overwhelming, but they still suggest that the consecutive win record will not be broken. Betting otherwise is risky business.
Emotions aside, the odds are the odds. Whether we acknowledge it or not, each day we do daily things subconsciously judging the odds and acting accordingly, like just crossing or not crossing the street successfully. Indeed, the odds are the odds, but nothing more.
Strange things do happen, and the odds are broken. Think about the US ice hockey victory over the great Russian team in the 1980 Olympic games. The Russians took over twice the number of goal shots than did the US team. The outcome doesn't reflect that whatsoever. As the announcer at that event, Al Miichaels' asked "Do you believe in Miracles?" Miracles do happen, and the odds against that 1980 miracle were far greater than the current Cleveland Indian odds. Good luck to them.
Best Wishes.
You're a hard man Maurice. Most everyone loves baseball and has some opinion on it, although not always positive. That mirrors investing in that aspect.
" ...... at the end of the day we can feel more than a little justified about America’s obsession with sports. “Just a game”? Far from it. Who knew that when you took your kid out to the ballgame, you were doing your country so much good? "
That quote was extracted from a comprehensive article by Gwen Burrow. It explored the impact of sports on the USA economy considering both secondary and tertiary effects. Here is the Link to that article:
http://www.economicmodeling.com/2013/07/09/not-just-a-game-the-impact-of-sports-on-u-s-economy/
Sports might not be a significant fraction of our GDP, but it does impact many folks in many ways. Note that the reference was posted under the Off Topic section of MFO. An argument can be made that it is a relevant discussion point even in an economic journal.
Besides, it is simply a fun topic.
I'll be watching a Dodger ballgame today, and I will enjoy it as much as I enjoyed the Dodger final game at Ebbits Field in 1957, and the Giants closing game at the Polo Grounds that same year. The fans packed Ebbits Field for that final contest, but mostly were absent at the Polo Grounds. Both ball clubs made excellent decisions for different reasons. I was doing graduate school work at Columbia University in '57 and really did see both closings. Lucky me.
Best Wishes
Thank you for your informative reply post. Player salaries have certainly escalated. The equity market might be currently overvalued, but not as much as the major league current pay standards. But, what do I know? Not much in that field since that's what their market is prepared and does pay them. They know what they are doing.
I guess the owners recover some of that, and likely more, with what seems like extravagant ticket pricing. My initial reaction is that price gouging is the rule of the road at Fenway Park. By way of comparison, the minimum ticket at the Dodger ballpark costs 11 dollars. Reasonable seat locations can be had for under 20 dollars. Typically the Dodgers do not have sellout crowds, so these lower priced tickets are often available at game time. Of course, some exceptions do exist.
I haven't been to a game in about two years. My interest level is definity waning. Aging is a major factor. Also, the TV coverage is excellent. Club owners have made their choices relative to that coverage. Again, they are probably maximizing their profits.
Best Wishes
Of course then several of them starting doing it your's and her's and their's ....
Regards,
Ted
Ah, Steadman
This is comical, and only a year-plus old:
https://www.valuewalk.com/2016/06/worst-mutual-fund-ever/?all=1
Cellar dwelling Tigers have lost 9 in a row. They've traded away Justin Verlander and several top line players this year. And they've already announced that manager Brad Ausmus won't be returning after the season ends.
(Dead man walking?)
Despite all that, this might be a game worth watching. https://www.thescore.com/news/1384688
Regards,
Ted
Bert Campaneris, Kansas City Athletics, Sept. 8, 1965. ...
Cesar Tovar, Minnesota Twins, Sept. 22, 1968. ...
Scott Sheldon, Texas Rangers, Sept. 6, 2000. ...
Shane Halter, Detroit Tigers, Oct. 1, 2000.