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High Stock Prices and Low Bond Yields Can't Last

edited August 2017 in Off-Topic
Heard an interesting contrarian line of reasoning from one of the talking heads on Bloomberg this morning. While conventional wisdom holds that bonds and equities move in opposite directions, he thought not so under current conditions. Here's the (I think fascinating) argument:

As equities and other risk assets rise to lofty levels, money managers (especially pension funds) need to keep rebalancing their portfolios on a regular basis. Therefore, some of the big gains from equities are being continually reinvested into bonds, keeping rates artificially low and boosting bond valuations right along with equity prices.

It's an interesting explanation of why both bonds and equities remain expensive. The following two links don't address that argument directly. (Couldn't dig up the Bloomberg comment.) However, both shed some light on current bond and equity valuations. FWIW

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-04-19/high-stock-prices-and-low-bond-yields-can-t-last

https://www.fxstreet.com/education/lesson-from-the-pros-stocks-201009280000

Comments

  • and I have heard it for years already, even a broken clock is right.
  • Welcome aboard.
  • it will take many years before US interest rate reaches 5-6% range. That is one of the reason the higher risk bond sectors are attracting investors who in the past invested in largely in treasury.
  • Hi @FD1000
    You noted: "and I have heard it for years already, even a broken clock is right."
    Might you explain, "I have heard it for years already". Heard or understand what (?) regarding this thread subject and/or the links provided by @hank
    Thank you.
    Catch
  • edited August 2017
    catch22 said:

    Hi @FD1000
    You noted: "and I have heard it for years already, even a broken clock is right."
    Might you explain, "I have heard it for years already". Heard or understand what (?) regarding this thread subject and/or the links provided by @hank
    Thank you.
    Catch

    @Catch, Thanks - I was wondering the same thing. Possibly FD1000 was reacting only to the post's caption "High Stock Prices and Low Bond Yields Can't Last." I would agree with him or her that these kinds of warnings have persisted for many years - and haven't materialized.

    What I hadn't heard before was the argument that higher equity prices are actually keeping interest rates low (because of the rebalancing effect). Don't know if that's plausible or not. If FD1000 or anyone else has seen that particular argument in the past and can cite sources for it (which I was unable to do) I'd love to see it.
  • Yeah, I was wondering also. Looks like we'll never know, though.
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