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Good News Bad News of the Market...Buying/Selling Opportunity of Your Lifetime
Trimmed some things, but not outright selling anything and really have a long-term time horizon on what I have. I don't currently have any intent to short, partly because I just think the end result is more money printing. I have a fairly significant allocation to alternative funds that can short in the meantime.
I don't know if I agree with the end result that the analyst discusses in the interview (I do think the market will drift lower into the Fall and Winter, although not to the degre discussed in the interview), although I do agree with some of the big picture views.
This guy is a trader, not an investor. He's basically saying that markets go up and down. So as trader, he says we're currently "up" so sell and short, so that when we're down, you can buy again. I'm an investor who trades a little on the side. I don't believe that there is any such thing as a "once in a lifetime" anything, except for birth and death. I added a little to a couple of long term positions recently, but I still have 29% cash. I think there will be a better opportunity to commit a lot of my cash to my long term positions later in the year if there is some reduction in uncertainty about election results, the US economic "recovery", fiscal cliff issues and the future of Europe.
I sold a bit today and am now down to about 50% of my original equity allocation. This is with full knowledge I am horrible at market timing so I have been trying to discipline myself to avoid it. Frequently moving in and out can really mess with my tax planning and that's something I also need to control.
I had been experimenting with a commodities fund (PCRIX) for a couple of years and also got rid of it a couple of days ago when commodities made a big bounce back. It was not so much the performance, but more the realization that commodities are way to complicated for me and I don't have the discipline to properly manage that part of my portfolio. I know there is a good chance grain prices might push up even higher this summer, but I just took this as an expensive lesson, cut my losses and move on.
Comments
http://seekingalpha.com/article/121726-recent-policy-decisions-and-a-greater-depression
The so called experts at forecasting and predicting have no more insights into where the markets are going than you, me, or the man in the moon.
I don't know if I agree with the end result that the analyst discusses in the interview (I do think the market will drift lower into the Fall and Winter, although not to the degre discussed in the interview), although I do agree with some of the big picture views.
I had been experimenting with a commodities fund (PCRIX) for a couple of years and also got rid of it a couple of days ago when commodities made a big bounce back. It was not so much the performance, but more the realization that commodities are way to complicated for me and I don't have the discipline to properly manage that part of my portfolio. I know there is a good chance grain prices might push up even higher this summer, but I just took this as an expensive lesson, cut my losses and move on.