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Looking for a good source to track monthly (LEI) Leading Economic Indicator
I thought they occasionally, or maybe even regularly, tracked the ratio of leading indicators to coincident or lagging indicators, which wasn't a very good predictor of recessions starting but was almost perfect at turning up when the recession ended. I can't find that anymore but maybe it's been replaced by what they're doing with the moving average of the rate of change.
It's their own calculation, but the source I usually go to is ECRI, which publishes weekly leading indicators. Most of the site is paid subscriber only, but the free content is plenty for most of us duffers.
This leading indicator does seems to be a bit elusive on a "up to moment basis" due to revisions. As noted by a few quotes from one link:
"...failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished.”
"...extrapolating from the recent past is a sure-fire recipe for being surprised by the next turn."
From LLJB's link I also found, recessionalert.com/, which also has a free blog link to articles related to recession risks, but this is mostly a subscription site.
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I thought they occasionally, or maybe even regularly, tracked the ratio of leading indicators to coincident or lagging indicators, which wasn't a very good predictor of recessions starting but was almost perfect at turning up when the recession ended. I can't find that anymore but maybe it's been replaced by what they're doing with the moving average of the rate of change.
Here's the explanation of their approach.
This leading indicator does seems to be a bit elusive on a "up to moment basis" due to revisions. As noted by a few quotes from one link:
"...failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished.”
"...extrapolating from the recent past is a sure-fire recipe for being surprised by the next turn."
From LLJB's link I also found, recessionalert.com/, which also has a free blog link to articles related to recession risks, but this is mostly a subscription site.
If a weekly updated can be trusted here one I found through AndyJ's link:
https://businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-weekly-leading-index-recession