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The markets are loving the courts HC decision today!!!
hi mike imho - probably not, we are having HC debates for the past few yrs. I think EU got another relief bail out plans that's why stocks If I retire in 6 months, I would sell everything and perhaps have very little % in stocks and bulk % in fixed incomes& cash/munis/cds portfolio
There is more to the eyes can see...drug stocks went up while insurance stocks declined. In the meantime, the market is moved by positive news in Europe.
"Euro-area leaders agreed to relax conditions on emergency loans for Spanish banks and possible help for Italy as an outflanked German Chancellor Angela Merkel gave in on expanded steps to stem the debt crisis."
Reply to @Sven: "Is it time to rebalance while the market is up?"
I think it is, at least lightly for those who are seeking to do so. I'm certainly not buying anything into this. Again, a delightful chart illustrating the process in Europe and elsewhere:
You asked, "Is it time to rebalance while the market is up?"
I personally do not believe the equity rally has real legs based upon all else in place at this time; and the big house human and machine trades will take full advantage of the "Euro" announcement. Everyone will and does have their own opinions as to whether some equity sectors are oversold and a value.
Our house will likely take some money knocks today in some bond sectors with the week finding a near flat return. But, we will not be selling some bonds to buy some equities.
We would consider selling some equity sectors, if we held those; but would likely retain active managed, broad based funds if they have shown to be well managed since June of 2011.
Didn't really offer any help for such a personal decision; and one's choice to rebalance obviously sets upon the risk/reward of an equity/bond mix.
Scott, just having some fun with a take-off on a little discussion we had yesterday. I don't believe the health care decision moved the market much, if at all, yesterday and it's certainly not the cause today.
Reply to @MikeM: I know - I'm just having fun as well. I suppose it's also a moderate amount of concern about aspects of the ruling and having to process what that means for sectors (some of which have already begun to voice their dismay), investments, etc.
I think it will be good in some ways, but I find it highly concerning in others. Additionally, like anything else political these days, most industries and a large portion of the population probably aren't even clear on the fine print of the thing, either, continued regulatory uncertainty, etc. Again, I have significant issues with it (big picture and otherwise), it may help some people, and I'd think it may have been better if we had a political system that was willing to work together and not focused on taking in more and more money from special interests.
It's not even being political (although I know this will be probably labeled as such), it's more a matter of massive decisions being made in probably one of the worst political environments in decades - it's not that decisions can't be made, but no one's clear on the details, leading to tremendous regulatory uncertainty, and when they are made, there's next-to-no political unison, leading to tremendous playing of politics. Concerns about the decision aside, it's being done in a system that's not working and is more about political games and less about concern for the populace than in ages.
Reply to @catch22: "I personally do not believe the equity rally has real legs based upon all else in place at this time."
The can can be kicked for longer than anyone thinks. I agree with you in theory, but I think for those with moderate time horizons, there are interesting investments and it comes down to picking one's spots. I have a long-term time horizon on a number of major and minor themes. However, I'm not interested in adding any more, really, at this point, to those investments, and some I'm not really interested in adding more to in general from an allocation standpoint. However, others I'd consider but further down from here by at least a moderate degree - and I wouldn't be surprised if that happens later in the Summer, if not sooner.
Sorta/kinda looking at EM debt, but otherwise still not finding fixed income that compelling. Again though, I wouldn't recommend what I'm doing for someone at/near retirement age.
This has nothing to do with the Obamacare ruling. This is all Europe. I'm sure there's also some end of quarter window dressing going on. I think this rally has a few days or a couple of weeks left. The news from Europe was good but the devil is in the details; as long as there is progress on implementing the agreement we will rally, but the rally will end when there is the first significant push back for the European parties involved in the agreement.
I'm considering adding to my EM funds including EM bonds. I also reinitiated a position in MOO earlier this week. However, I'm still over 25% cash. I think the US recovery is anemic and getting worse, and I don't trust the Europeans to follow through.
Could drive yourself nuts with the various scenarios. One thought: Markets hate uncertainty & perhaps the SC decision removed some ... What I mean is: It bolsters the President's re-election prospects and, therefore, lessens the possibility Bernanke will be pushed out. Big rallies in nat resources today might support this as they're generally viewed as inflation hedges. All pure conjecture of course (and agree that the news out of Europe is significant). Like most, I'd like to see markets bolt higher. Have skimmed a bit off at a couple tops & reinvested near bottoms, but it's been a tight range this year and currently clinging to some slim-pickins.
Oil sure popped today. Fourth largest one day gain in history. I hope it falls back as I'd like a better entry point (like yesterday's close!). It's a sector I'm watching as the price for a barrel of crude has come down so much this quarter.
Europe will stop buying Iranian oil on July 1 and the Saudis will decrease their overproduction which, together with a drop off in demand this quarter, has caused a glut of oil recently. This downward trend in oil prices certainly reversed itself today. Time will tell if this trend reversal continues...
Hi PopTart, Fuel prices having been pushing downward, too. I expect this to reverse going into next week. Filled both vehicles today (Friday) at $3.07/gal. Regards, Catch
Reply to @PopTart: Perennial dog QRAAX jumped 5.17% Friday - likely on energy prices (still own it, but have been gradually shifting out in favor of PRNEX).
Re oil prices - like most, I gage the impact by petro prices at the pump. Don't think $3.50-$4.00 outrageous considering the tremendous appetite here and abroad. (More vehicles on the roads in China now than in U.S.) Don't like these prices any more than anyone else, but compared to other things we buy (beer, new cars, ice cream) can't honestly say $4.00 not reasonable for value received - will push a newer model maybe 25-35 miles down the highway, or about 10-15 cents a mile (even that's misleading as taxes are included in the price).
Re markets - they're always capable of big spikes on upside. Believe the research shows the upward spikes tend to be greater and faster than the down ones - sometimes cited by money managers as reason not to try timing the markets. Getting out easy. Getting back in after rally starts bit harder.
Reply to @hank: Hi Hank. I also have been putting a little into PRNEX over the last few weeks. I'm actually considering selling my small position in TGLDX which I've held on to for a couple years and putting it into PRNEX also. I like the TRP fund because of it's diversification in natural resources and energy (and also a couple miners) over the more sector oriented minors/gold fund. PRNEX is suppose to do well in inflationary times, so it could do well going forward. Certainly hasn't done well the last year so I thing we are getting in on the low side.
Reply to @tgeno: I totally agree that SC ruling has much impact on recent upswing. Crisis in Eurozone is much bigger and potentially could affect the rest of global markets.
In the worst scenario, Europe falls into recession, follow by US and Asia, then 2008 will replay again. Another scenario is the economy moves at slow pace, and the market return in the next few years will be substantially lower than the historial returns.
Comments
imho - probably not, we are having HC debates for the past few yrs. I think EU got another relief bail out plans that's why stocks
If I retire in 6 months, I would sell everything and perhaps have very little % in stocks and bulk % in fixed incomes& cash/munis/cds portfolio
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-rally-europe-unveils-crisis-134201618.html are up 1.8%
Oh, and one minor question - what fund is this discussing in the fund discussion area?
"Euro-area leaders agreed to relax conditions on emergency loans for Spanish banks and possible help for Italy as an outflanked German Chancellor Angela Merkel gave in on expanded steps to stem the debt crisis."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-29/eu-leaders-ease-debt-crisis-rules-for-spain-as-merkel-retreats.html
Is it time to rebalance while the market is up?
I think it is, at least lightly for those who are seeking to do so. I'm certainly not buying anything into this. Again, a delightful chart illustrating the process in Europe and elsewhere:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/01/Einhorn chart.jpg
You asked, "Is it time to rebalance while the market is up?"
I personally do not believe the equity rally has real legs based upon all else in place at this time; and the big house human and machine trades will take full advantage of the "Euro" announcement. Everyone will and does have their own opinions as to whether some equity sectors are oversold and a value.
Our house will likely take some money knocks today in some bond sectors with the week finding a near flat return. But, we will not be selling some bonds to buy some equities.
We would consider selling some equity sectors, if we held those; but would likely retain active managed, broad based funds if they have shown to be well managed since June of 2011.
Didn't really offer any help for such a personal decision; and one's choice to rebalance obviously sets upon the risk/reward of an equity/bond mix.
Take care of you and yours,
Catch
I edited it.
John, I was kidding.
Scott, just having some fun with a take-off on a little discussion we had yesterday. I don't believe the health care decision moved the market much, if at all, yesterday and it's certainly not the cause today.
I think it will be good in some ways, but I find it highly concerning in others. Additionally, like anything else political these days, most industries and a large portion of the population probably aren't even clear on the fine print of the thing, either, continued regulatory uncertainty, etc. Again, I have significant issues with it (big picture and otherwise), it may help some people, and I'd think it may have been better if we had a political system that was willing to work together and not focused on taking in more and more money from special interests.
It's not even being political (although I know this will be probably labeled as such), it's more a matter of massive decisions being made in probably one of the worst political environments in decades - it's not that decisions can't be made, but no one's clear on the details, leading to tremendous regulatory uncertainty, and when they are made, there's next-to-no political unison, leading to tremendous playing of politics. Concerns about the decision aside, it's being done in a system that's not working and is more about political games and less about concern for the populace than in ages.
Have a good weekend.
The can can be kicked for longer than anyone thinks. I agree with you in theory, but I think for those with moderate time horizons, there are interesting investments and it comes down to picking one's spots. I have a long-term time horizon on a number of major and minor themes. However, I'm not interested in adding any more, really, at this point, to those investments, and some I'm not really interested in adding more to in general from an allocation standpoint. However, others I'd consider but further down from here by at least a moderate degree - and I wouldn't be surprised if that happens later in the Summer, if not sooner.
Sorta/kinda looking at EM debt, but otherwise still not finding fixed income that compelling. Again though, I wouldn't recommend what I'm doing for someone at/near retirement age.
I'm considering adding to my EM funds including EM bonds. I also reinitiated a position in MOO earlier this week. However, I'm still over 25% cash. I think the US recovery is anemic and getting worse, and I don't trust the Europeans to follow through.
Europe will stop buying Iranian oil on July 1 and the Saudis will decrease their overproduction which, together with a drop off in demand this quarter, has caused a glut of oil recently. This downward trend in oil prices certainly reversed itself today. Time will tell if this trend reversal continues...
Have a great weekend to all.
Fuel prices having been pushing downward, too. I expect this to reverse going into next week. Filled both vehicles today (Friday) at $3.07/gal.
Regards,
Catch
Perennial dog QRAAX jumped 5.17% Friday - likely on energy prices (still own it, but have been gradually shifting out in favor of PRNEX).
Re oil prices - like most, I gage the impact by petro prices at the pump. Don't think $3.50-$4.00 outrageous considering the tremendous appetite here and abroad. (More vehicles on the roads in China now than in U.S.) Don't like these prices any more than anyone else, but compared to other things we buy (beer, new cars, ice cream) can't honestly say $4.00 not reasonable for value received - will push a newer model maybe 25-35 miles down the highway, or about 10-15 cents a mile (even that's misleading as taxes are included in the price).
Re markets - they're always capable of big spikes on upside. Believe the research shows the upward spikes tend to be greater and faster than the down ones - sometimes cited by money managers as reason not to try timing the markets. Getting out easy. Getting back in after rally starts bit harder.
Happy 4th of July to ya hank.
In the worst scenario, Europe falls into recession, follow by US and Asia, then 2008 will replay again. Another scenario is the economy moves at slow pace, and the market return in the next few years will be substantially lower than the historial returns.