FYI: Philip Tetlock has spent his career studying experts and prediction. One of his studies involved nearly 300 economists, political scientists, intelligence analysts and journalists. They tallied almost 30,000 predictions in their respective fields.
The average expert wasn’t much better than a random guess. And the more confident they were in their predictions the worst they tended to be and the more media attention they received.
Regards,
Ted
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/06/predictive-vs-diagnostic-frameworks/
