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Morningstar, Day One: "it feels a lot like 1982"

David_Snowball
edited June 2012 in Fund Discussions
The panel of senior managers (Susan Byrne, Brian Rogers, Will Danoff) started talking about the equity market going forward. They were uniformly, if cautiously, optimistic. Rogers drew some parallels to the economy and market of 1982. I liked Susan Byrne's comments rather more: "It feels like 1982 when you believed that any rally was a trap, designed to fool me, humiliate me and keep me poor." Mr. Danoff argued that global blue chips "have absolutely flat-lined for years," and represent substantial embedded value. They argued for pursuing stocks with growing dividends, a strategy that will consistently beat fixed income or inflation.

For what it's worth,

David

Comments

  • BobCBobC
    One of our lead investment staff persons is attending this conference, too. This year's meeting looks to be way better than last. As for Byrne's comments about the current time feeling like 1982, I hope she is right about this. Same goes for Danoff and Rogers. We could all use some 1980-like numbers!
  • catch22catch22
    edited June 2012
    Some equity market areas today may be attempting a 1982 move from a bottom; but the economic status report surely is not the same as 1982.
    For whatever reason, I still recall the Nightly Business Report on PBS at or around the end of August in 1982 and the DJIA had started to move in a positive fashion to a value of about 827. Similar positive discussions were also in place at "Wall Street Week" with Louis and Co.
    As for equity rally traps; yes, the machines may provide this action.
    As to parallels, at least for the U.S. and other developed (old) economies; I do not find too many similar circumstances.
    The industrial bases of many of these countries is now greatly reduced; and what were the "ankle biters" of the EM countries in 1982 has become a large morph of economic power and monetary structures.

    As noted from the speakers, "They were uniformly, if cautiously, optimistic."

    Yes, indeed. The investment roadmap has been and continues to be redrawn from June of 2007. An electronic investment trip planner may indicate, "coordinates not found".

    Tis not 1982.

    DJIA Dec 1971-May 2012

    Regards,
    Catch
  • DlphcOracl
    Market valuations in 1982 (deeply undervalued) are vastly different than they are today. Anyone who believes and invests as if we are on the cusp of a long, secular bull market must be seeing something I am not.
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