Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Forecasting is hazardous duty. Most of us fail more often than we succeed. What's true for us is equally true for proclaimed professional forecasters too. The accumulated data supports that bleak assessment.
CXO Advisory Group has been testing and scoring economic and investment forecasters for decades. Their output demonstrates the futility of this hard exercise. On average, these select professionals do no better than a fair coin toss. Here is a Link that summarizes the CXO's long running study results:
The best score is roughly 3 out of 4 correct predictions. Not bad, but far from impressive given all the other lower scores.
As a forecaster Harry Dent has an especially poor record. Yet he manages to sell a gazillion books. Failure does produce some success in some unexpected and distorted way. It's sometimes hard to figure. Regardless of a few notable exceptions, forecasting is indeed hazardous duty.
Comments
Forecasting is hazardous duty. Most of us fail more often than we succeed. What's true for us is equally true for proclaimed professional forecasters too. The accumulated data supports that bleak assessment.
CXO Advisory Group has been testing and scoring economic and investment forecasters for decades. Their output demonstrates the futility of this hard exercise. On average, these select professionals do no better than a fair coin toss. Here is a Link that summarizes the CXO's long running study results:
https://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/
The best score is roughly 3 out of 4 correct predictions. Not bad, but far from impressive given all the other lower scores.
As a forecaster Harry Dent has an especially poor record. Yet he manages to sell a gazillion books. Failure does produce some success in some unexpected and distorted way. It's sometimes hard to figure. Regardless of a few notable exceptions, forecasting is indeed hazardous duty.
Best Wishes