FYI: Today’s CPI report for the month of April showed a smaller than expected increase resulting in y/y increase in the headline reading of 2.2%. That’s down 0.2 percentage points from last month and down a full half point from the multi-year high of 2.7% that we saw in February. Whenever we look at overall inflation levels, one secondary indicator we like to look at for confirmation of the overall trend is the monthly commodity surveys in the ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing reports. In a nutshell, these surveys ask respondents about which commodities they deal with are rising and falling in price, and usually, we have found that trends in these surveys tend to coincide or even lead the overall trend in headline inflation. This month, though, we have been seeing some mixed signals.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/ism-commodities-survey-diverges-from-cpi/
